* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * LORENA EP122025 09/02/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 52 59 67 74 81 83 73 62 40 42 41 43 42 42 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 52 59 67 74 81 83 73 62 40 31 33 28 27 27 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 52 59 65 70 77 77 67 53 43 33 38 30 28 27 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 6 3 2 1 8 13 18 20 24 27 27 31 36 38 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 -1 -1 0 1 2 4 6 3 1 2 1 5 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 352 4 351 331 154 183 217 228 239 225 243 251 265 275 293 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.8 30.0 29.2 28.7 28.4 27.9 26.1 25.0 25.1 26.6 29.4 30.8 31.2 31.1 31.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 164 166 157 151 148 142 122 111 112 127 157 170 170 170 170 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.9 -52.2 -52.4 -52.0 -51.6 -51.5 -51.1 -51.0 -51.1 -51.6 -51.7 -52.1 -52.0 -52.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 4 5 4 3 2 3 4 6 6 8 7 8 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 80 77 74 75 71 65 62 58 54 45 39 32 27 23 24 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 12 15 17 17 20 17 15 3 7 6 8 7 9 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 40 67 72 69 77 64 47 34 36 4 -5 -12 -22 7 -7 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 77 85 74 48 45 52 40 14 10 -24 -28 -13 -33 -37 -58 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -8 -7 5 5 2 4 3 1 0 0 -1 0 1 -1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 319 378 294 251 249 255 226 185 114 20 -23 15 -121 -265 -384 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.6 20.3 20.9 21.5 22.7 23.7 24.6 25.7 26.6 27.5 28.5 29.7 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.3 109.3 110.3 111.1 111.9 113.2 114.0 114.0 113.8 113.4 112.7 111.9 111.1 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 10 9 7 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 6 7 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 26 22 17 13 9 5 4 3 3 4 14 38 23 28 32 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 534 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 57.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. -0. -3. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -9. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 13. 9. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 3. 4. 4. 8. 7. 4. -12. -6. -7. -4. -5. -3. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 10. 16. 14. 7. 1. -3. -6. -9. -10. -10. -10. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 14. 22. 29. 36. 38. 28. 17. -5. -3. -4. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 18.9 108.3 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122025 LORENA 09/02/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.3 30.0 to 148.5 0.69 15.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 10.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.4 34.9 to 7.7 0.75 12.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 94.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.80 -13.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.49 6.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 8.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.79 8.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.14 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 4.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -2.6 0.46 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 35% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 64% is 5.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 53% is 6.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 6.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 56% is 8.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 51% is 8.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 35.4% 63.5% 53.3% 43.1% 24.4% 55.8% 50.9% 10.3% Logistic: 33.8% 62.1% 45.9% 38.3% 15.2% 28.1% 2.5% 0.1% Bayesian: 14.0% 21.4% 12.2% 5.9% 2.1% 2.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 27.7% 49.0% 37.1% 29.1% 13.9% 28.7% 17.8% 3.5% DTOPS: 16.0% 37.0% 25.0% 21.0% 13.0% 29.0% 17.0% 0.0% SDCON: 21.8% 43.0% 31.0% 25.0% 13.4% 28.8% 17.4% 1.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122025 LORENA 09/02/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##