* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * LORENA EP122025 09/02/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 41 48 55 63 74 78 73 59 44 41 42 44 45 46 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 41 48 55 63 74 78 73 59 44 41 36 33 29 27 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 39 43 47 52 60 64 61 51 43 41 36 33 29 27 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 9 7 7 3 4 11 13 21 28 32 27 30 27 41 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 2 0 7 3 1 2 0 4 2 1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 2 9 15 15 35 163 225 226 226 223 256 270 278 278 288 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.9 29.1 28.9 27.7 27.1 25.8 24.9 25.3 27.3 30.0 30.9 31.0 30.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 163 163 165 156 154 140 133 119 110 114 135 163 170 170 170 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.4 -52.0 -52.3 -52.5 -51.6 -51.8 -51.0 -51.1 -51.3 -51.8 -51.9 -52.0 -52.0 -52.2 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 6 5 4 3 3 3 5 4 8 6 9 5 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 81 78 76 74 72 66 63 56 49 42 35 31 25 24 21 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 10 12 13 15 18 19 17 11 6 7 8 11 11 14 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 35 54 58 55 66 50 39 36 11 -13 -42 -24 -18 -5 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 72 70 55 54 43 60 17 43 19 -34 -23 -46 -19 -58 -47 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 -2 -2 4 -1 1 0 -1 -1 1 2 0 1 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 304 343 398 322 285 329 293 251 194 113 2 22 -28 -166 -317 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.7 19.4 20.1 20.7 21.6 22.7 23.7 24.7 25.7 26.9 27.8 28.6 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 107.4 108.4 109.4 110.4 111.4 112.9 113.8 114.3 114.1 113.7 113.2 112.4 111.4 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 11 10 7 6 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 31 25 21 17 11 7 4 3 3 4 5 26 37 33 32 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 483 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 61.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. 1. 3. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 8. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 11. 12. 5. -3. -1. 0. 3. 3. 5. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 8. 11. 18. 16. 8. 1. -4. -7. -10. -11. -11. -11. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 13. 20. 28. 39. 43. 38. 24. 9. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 17.9 107.4 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122025 LORENA 09/02/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.1 30.0 to 148.5 0.80 11.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 5.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 34.9 to 7.7 0.76 7.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 70.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.83 -9.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.45 4.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 4.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.17 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 2.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.6 0.51 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 3.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.8% 42.2% 30.7% 19.6% 13.9% 28.7% 27.5% 0.0% Logistic: 16.2% 49.4% 28.5% 20.4% 12.3% 28.5% 4.5% 0.2% Bayesian: 1.9% 11.4% 4.5% 1.5% 0.7% 2.0% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 10.6% 34.3% 21.2% 13.8% 8.9% 19.7% 10.7% 0.1% DTOPS: 7.0% 44.0% 32.0% 11.0% 7.0% 25.0% 25.0% 2.0% SDCON: 8.8% 39.1% 26.6% 12.4% 7.9% 22.3% 17.8% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122025 LORENA 09/02/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##