* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * TWELVE EP122025 09/02/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 39 46 52 66 72 73 68 59 50 45 37 38 39 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 33 39 46 52 66 72 73 68 59 50 40 32 28 27 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 31 34 36 40 47 54 56 54 47 41 32 33 28 27 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 5 7 5 6 3 9 12 15 19 22 17 18 25 30 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -4 -3 -3 -1 0 2 4 3 0 4 1 3 1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 27 319 332 351 349 233 171 212 237 255 254 268 265 296 309 N/A N/A SST (C) 30.2 29.7 29.7 29.9 29.1 28.3 27.7 26.9 25.4 25.2 27.1 29.8 30.4 30.9 31.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 168 163 163 165 156 147 140 131 115 114 133 161 167 170 170 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.7 -52.5 -52.0 -52.2 -52.0 -52.0 -51.6 -51.3 -51.2 -51.4 -51.6 -51.5 -51.4 -51.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.6 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 7 6 5 4 3 3 3 4 6 6 9 9 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 81 81 78 77 76 72 68 67 62 58 52 48 39 31 25 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 8 11 13 13 19 20 22 20 17 13 10 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 26 29 34 51 59 65 61 52 23 34 17 15 14 16 48 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 71 70 64 60 69 40 59 30 52 19 24 24 9 -51 -39 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 0 0 -4 -6 3 0 2 1 2 0 -2 0 2 5 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 267 297 346 402 317 294 314 256 212 155 10 2 37 -95 -265 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.3 18.0 18.6 19.4 20.1 21.2 22.1 23.2 24.1 25.3 26.5 27.5 28.2 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 106.3 107.4 108.4 109.4 110.4 112.2 113.3 113.9 114.1 113.7 113.0 112.3 111.9 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 12 11 9 6 5 5 6 6 5 5 7 8 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 37 31 25 21 17 8 5 4 3 4 5 25 37 34 32 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 447 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 52.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 3. 7. 9. 10. 9. 8. 7. 7. 7. 10. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 14. 11. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 5. 5. 9. 13. 19. 20. 15. 9. 5. -4. -4. -3. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 4. 6. 9. 14. 13. 7. 1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 9. 16. 22. 36. 42. 43. 38. 29. 20. 15. 7. 8. 9. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.3 106.3 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122025 TWELVE 09/02/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.0 30.0 to 148.5 0.87 12.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 4.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 34.9 to 7.7 0.85 8.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 45.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 -9.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.49 4.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 4.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.22 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 2.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -2.6 0.28 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 3.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 30% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 38% is 6.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.9% 42.5% 30.5% 19.1% 0.0% 29.7% 37.8% 16.0% Logistic: 5.1% 32.7% 16.9% 10.6% 6.1% 27.5% 9.8% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 2.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 6.0% 25.8% 16.0% 10.0% 2.1% 19.2% 15.9% 5.5% DTOPS: 2.0% 31.0% 16.0% 7.0% 4.0% 16.0% 20.0% 6.0% SDCON: 4.0% 28.4% 16.0% 8.5% 3.0% 17.6% 17.9% 5.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122025 TWELVE 09/02/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##