* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * TWELVE EP122025 09/02/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 44 48 57 61 61 58 54 52 50 50 48 46 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 44 48 57 61 61 58 54 52 39 40 33 29 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 39 42 48 51 52 51 48 45 35 36 31 28 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 10 8 7 7 6 5 9 10 15 17 29 26 42 51 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 -3 -4 -4 -3 2 -1 5 0 0 2 5 3 -4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 39 57 44 337 333 327 199 234 237 256 254 277 274 287 302 N/A N/A SST (C) 30.4 30.2 29.8 29.8 30.1 28.7 27.9 27.8 26.3 25.4 26.6 28.6 30.1 30.9 30.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 170 168 164 164 167 151 142 140 124 116 128 149 164 170 170 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.5 -52.6 -52.4 -51.9 -52.3 -51.4 -51.9 -51.2 -51.0 -50.5 -50.9 -50.8 -50.6 -50.5 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 6 7 7 5 5 3 3 3 4 4 8 6 8 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 82 81 80 78 78 76 69 67 62 57 50 41 32 27 29 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 33 32 47 60 55 67 58 53 40 47 39 24 7 22 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 75 77 77 74 72 42 74 38 70 32 38 25 -33 -33 -36 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -5 -2 -2 -10 1 -2 1 0 0 -4 5 5 6 2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 208 219 259 294 353 253 270 237 187 142 37 -34 49 -52 -168 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 104.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 11 10 8 5 5 7 7 6 6 7 8 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 41 38 32 27 23 14 7 4 4 4 4 9 32 35 36 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 510 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 35.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 3. 7. 10. 12. 11. 10. 9. 9. 9. 12. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. 10. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 7. 4. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 19. 27. 31. 31. 28. 24. 22. 20. 20. 18. 16. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.0 104.8 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122025 TWELVE 09/02/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.5 30.0 to 148.5 0.90 16.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 6.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.4 34.9 to 7.7 0.79 10.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 30.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 -12.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.53 6.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 2.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 7.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.28 1.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 3.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.6 0.51 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 58% is 4.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 45% is 6.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 63% is 10.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 48% is 10.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.9% 58.2% 42.6% 29.4% 0.0% 45.2% 62.9% 47.9% Logistic: 20.4% 63.2% 41.9% 31.7% 27.4% 57.5% 43.6% 2.7% Bayesian: 1.7% 25.6% 14.1% 6.4% 1.1% 9.5% 3.0% 0.4% Consensus: 12.3% 49.0% 32.8% 22.5% 9.5% 37.4% 36.5% 17.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 17.0% 10.0% 3.0% 2.0% 9.0% 8.0% 12.0% SDCON: 7.1% 33.0% 21.4% 12.7% 5.7% 23.2% 22.2% 14.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122025 TWELVE 09/02/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##