* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERICK EP052025 06/18/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 57 64 71 78 83 83 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 57 64 71 78 83 49 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 56 62 69 75 82 50 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 3 8 10 11 13 6 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -6 -6 -7 -8 0 -3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 78 62 103 121 97 75 126 237 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.8 29.4 29.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 159 159 159 163 159 164 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.2 -52.4 -51.8 -51.5 -52.2 -51.3 -51.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 6 6 5 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 85 86 84 83 84 85 83 83 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 17 17 18 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 50 55 62 61 72 90 102 100 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 40 68 99 126 156 163 135 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 -2 -5 -14 -4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 306 288 226 163 115 11 -80 -105 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.3 13.7 14.2 14.7 16.1 17.6 18.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 94.6 95.2 95.8 96.3 96.9 98.2 99.9 101.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 8 10 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 30 31 31 32 35 36 24 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 44.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. -1. -4. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 10. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 14. 21. 28. 33. 33. 30. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 12.9 94.6 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052025 ERICK 06/18/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.6 36.9 to 148.5 0.64 17.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 13.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 34.9 to 8.5 0.93 18.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 12.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.89 -20.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 97.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.64 12.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.79 12.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 10.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.28 3.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 4.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.48 -0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 83% is 6.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 70% is 8.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 62% is 10.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 51% is 12.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 83% is 12.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 74% is 12.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 54% is 11.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 29.3% 82.9% 70.4% 61.9% 51.1% 83.4% 74.3% 53.9% Logistic: 22.0% 62.0% 35.2% 29.9% 29.0% 40.0% 53.0% 15.4% Bayesian: 7.9% 51.5% 57.1% 35.9% 20.7% 47.3% 35.6% 19.3% Consensus: 19.7% 65.5% 54.2% 42.6% 33.6% 56.9% 54.3% 29.5% DTOPS: 28.0% 63.0% 57.0% 42.0% 22.0% 14.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 23.8% 64.2% 55.6% 42.3% 27.8% 35.4% 27.1% 14.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052025 ERICK 06/18/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##