* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERICK EP052025 06/17/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 52 59 66 74 83 81 79 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 52 59 66 74 83 62 40 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 51 57 64 71 81 64 40 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 1 2 6 10 14 7 0 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -5 -5 -6 -2 1 0 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 90 60 43 107 105 73 105 351 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.8 29.5 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 161 158 157 159 159 162 162 163 161 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.9 -52.2 -52.4 -51.7 -52.0 -51.9 -51.9 -51.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 6 6 6 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 83 85 85 83 83 85 83 82 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 15 16 18 16 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 47 51 57 66 69 91 93 107 99 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 30 33 57 82 115 147 110 61 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -1 -3 -9 -9 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 293 302 292 218 152 61 -35 -96 -144 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.6 13.0 13.3 13.8 14.3 15.4 16.9 18.3 19.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 94.1 94.6 95.1 95.7 96.3 97.5 99.0 100.9 102.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 8 8 9 11 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 29 30 31 31 32 39 29 19 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 48.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 14. 16. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 2. -4. -6. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 8. 13. 11. 6. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 14. 21. 29. 38. 36. 34. 29. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 12.6 94.1 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052025 ERICK 06/17/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.0 36.9 to 148.5 0.69 12.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 9.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 34.9 to 8.5 0.93 13.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 9.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.90 -14.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.47 6.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 6.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 5.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.27 2.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 2.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.57 -0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 59% is 4.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 6.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 61% is 9.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 72% is 12.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 54% is 11.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.8% 58.9% 44.4% 33.7% 25.6% 61.0% 71.7% 53.8% Logistic: 28.2% 67.5% 41.0% 31.5% 20.2% 40.6% 58.2% 19.9% Bayesian: 12.7% 81.9% 67.4% 43.6% 19.8% 59.6% 50.5% 14.0% Consensus: 18.9% 69.4% 50.9% 36.3% 21.9% 53.7% 60.1% 29.2% DTOPS: 20.0% 61.0% 55.0% 39.0% 20.0% 33.0% 2.0% 0.0% SDCON: 19.4% 65.2% 52.9% 37.6% 20.9% 43.3% 31.0% 14.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052025 ERICK 06/17/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##