* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERICK EP052025 06/17/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 46 52 60 68 79 80 73 69 64 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 46 52 60 68 79 80 50 35 29 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 45 51 58 65 77 82 52 35 29 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 3 2 1 5 14 11 0 2 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -4 -4 -5 -7 0 0 1 -6 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 97 121 199 4 112 112 87 114 66 30 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 30.0 29.4 29.9 29.3 28.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 155 155 155 155 155 165 160 164 156 150 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.3 -52.0 -52.4 -52.6 -51.6 -52.4 -51.5 -52.2 -51.6 -52.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 5 5 7 6 7 5 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 83 83 85 86 84 83 85 81 79 77 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 13 14 16 17 12 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 60 44 52 60 65 81 94 101 100 99 93 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 10 30 34 57 84 155 166 120 40 41 -28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 -1 -3 -12 -5 -1 -2 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 319 319 321 289 237 129 11 -70 -111 -118 -91 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.5 12.9 13.3 13.6 14.6 16.1 17.5 19.0 19.8 20.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 93.9 94.3 94.8 95.3 95.8 97.0 98.2 99.9 102.0 103.5 104.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 6 7 9 10 12 10 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 28 29 30 31 31 35 36 24 16 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 651 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 49.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 16. 19. 19. 20. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 0. -7. -8. -8. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 8. 13. 12. 6. 1. -3. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 20. 28. 39. 40. 33. 29. 24. 18. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 12.1 93.9 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052025 ERICK 06/17/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.0 36.9 to 148.5 0.70 11.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 8.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 34.9 to 8.5 0.96 12.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 8.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.90 -13.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.37 4.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 4.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 5.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.26 1.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 2.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.50 -0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 52% is 4.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 46% is 6.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 68% is 11.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 54% is 11.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.9% 51.7% 39.0% 25.0% 18.9% 46.1% 68.1% 53.6% Logistic: 30.8% 80.4% 58.8% 50.4% 33.9% 55.1% 75.1% 33.1% Bayesian: 5.5% 79.6% 50.0% 21.8% 24.1% 81.1% 71.6% 18.9% Consensus: 17.0% 70.6% 49.2% 32.4% 25.6% 60.8% 71.6% 35.2% DTOPS: 9.0% 45.0% 38.0% 26.0% 11.0% 18.0% 26.0% 0.0% SDCON: 13.0% 57.8% 43.6% 29.2% 18.3% 39.4% 48.8% 17.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052025 ERICK 06/17/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##