* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERICK EP052025 06/17/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 46 54 61 75 85 84 74 70 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 40 46 54 61 75 85 74 50 37 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 38 43 48 54 70 85 89 53 37 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 3 4 2 2 7 9 12 7 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -3 -5 -5 -7 -7 1 -4 0 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 93 94 62 42 67 99 73 101 83 358 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 30.0 29.4 30.1 29.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 154 155 155 155 157 164 158 165 161 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.7 -52.5 -52.1 -52.4 -52.1 -52.1 -52.0 -52.0 -52.1 -52.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 5 5 6 6 7 6 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 82 85 84 86 85 83 86 85 82 83 82 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 12 14 15 17 18 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 59 59 42 54 66 71 90 79 89 71 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 44 32 43 52 65 117 160 145 92 67 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 -1 -3 -5 -10 -8 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 321 318 324 322 302 198 98 -3 -40 -50 -108 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.7 12.0 12.3 12.8 13.2 13.9 15.0 16.4 17.2 18.0 19.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 93.3 93.7 94.2 94.6 95.1 96.2 97.3 98.5 99.9 101.2 102.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 5 6 6 6 7 8 8 7 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 25 27 29 30 31 32 37 33 27 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 685 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 46.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 17. 20. 22. 24. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 5. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 11. 6. 1. -2. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 19. 26. 40. 50. 49. 39. 35. 31. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 11.7 93.3 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052025 ERICK 06/17/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.5 36.9 to 148.5 0.74 6.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 34.9 to 8.5 0.90 6.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 3.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.90 -7.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.39 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.24 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.42 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 2.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 30% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 60% is 10.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 54% is 11.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.8% 32.0% 19.6% 16.4% 13.8% 29.8% 59.8% 53.6% Logistic: 9.2% 61.8% 33.4% 24.6% 9.5% 50.1% 82.3% 47.2% Bayesian: 1.1% 42.2% 16.5% 5.1% 4.0% 16.8% 27.5% 65.3% Consensus: 7.4% 45.3% 23.1% 15.3% 9.1% 32.2% 56.5% 55.3% DTOPS: 6.0% 34.0% 18.0% 11.0% 5.0% 21.0% 30.0% 4.0% SDCON: 6.7% 39.6% 20.5% 13.1% 7.0% 26.6% 43.2% 29.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052025 ERICK 06/17/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##