* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIVE EP052025 06/16/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 38 42 52 63 73 71 63 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 38 42 52 63 73 60 43 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 36 39 47 57 68 61 42 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 9 9 6 6 5 9 9 12 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 0 -1 -5 -6 -8 -4 -1 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 74 82 90 90 91 80 90 71 77 318 315 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.1 29.1 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.8 29.8 29.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 157 158 157 154 154 155 155 155 160 158 159 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -52.5 -52.1 -52.2 -52.0 -52.3 -52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 4 5 5 6 5 6 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 81 82 84 84 85 84 83 87 87 87 88 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 9 10 11 13 17 18 13 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 63 58 65 71 63 68 74 82 82 62 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 29 55 47 47 47 61 119 154 182 147 94 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 -3 -2 -9 0 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 397 364 350 326 311 306 263 123 -18 -41 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 91.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 7 6 5 6 7 4 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 20 23 26 28 30 31 32 31 29 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 643 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 24. 25. 27. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 10. 10. 8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 10. 4. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 12. 22. 33. 43. 41. 33. 32. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.4 91.5 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052025 FIVE 06/16/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.1 36.9 to 148.5 0.80 7.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.0 34.9 to 8.5 0.64 4.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 8.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.90 -6.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.38 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.58 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.19 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.12 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.1% 21.9% 16.1% 13.1% 0.0% 23.7% 22.5% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 9.9% 3.1% 1.5% 0.3% 7.8% 37.7% 34.9% Bayesian: 0.1% 6.7% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.7% 32.5% Consensus: 3.3% 12.8% 6.8% 4.9% 0.1% 10.5% 20.3% 22.5% DTOPS: 1.0% 7.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 4.0% 6.0% 19.0% SDCON: 2.1% 9.9% 5.4% 3.4% .5% 7.2% 13.1% 20.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052025 FIVE 06/16/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##