* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KRISTY EP122024 10/26/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 72 60 48 36 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 72 60 48 36 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 74 63 53 44 31 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 30 32 31 31 41 52 50 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 9 8 13 9 -5 0 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 197 213 220 217 217 222 225 238 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.9 25.5 24.9 24.6 24.3 24.1 24.1 24.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 123 119 112 109 105 101 101 103 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.1 -51.9 -51.4 -51.8 -52.8 -52.9 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.3 1.6 1.7 1.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 1 1 1 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 57 55 51 45 34 26 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 23 23 21 18 14 10 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 14 14 -1 -9 -20 -8 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 77 72 89 69 49 24 -12 -28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 25 35 39 30 20 13 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1650 1636 1631 1618 1611 1617 1668 1755 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.1 19.1 20.0 21.0 21.9 22.8 22.7 22.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 127.2 127.9 128.6 129.1 129.6 130.4 131.1 132.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 11 8 4 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 13 CX,CY: -8/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -8. -16. -24. -32. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -8. -12. -15. -20. -21. -20. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -5. -7. -8. -7. -6. -3. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -2. -5. -8. -14. -21. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -13. -25. -37. -49. -65. -76. -86. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 18.1 127.2 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122024 KRISTY 10/26/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.7 36.9 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.03 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 51.8 34.9 to 8.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 554.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.28 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.51 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.58 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 48.2 58.2 to 0.0 0.17 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.62 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122024 KRISTY 10/26/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##