* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KRISTY EP122024 10/25/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 93 83 72 60 40 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 105 93 83 72 60 40 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 105 94 84 73 62 44 31 22 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 21 28 29 32 43 51 48 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 8 10 11 9 5 -1 1 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 189 182 193 209 213 213 221 225 241 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.3 27.2 25.9 25.5 24.9 24.3 24.0 24.0 24.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 137 123 119 112 105 100 101 107 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.5 -51.9 -52.0 -51.7 -51.5 -52.3 -52.9 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.6 1.2 0.5 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 60 58 56 55 47 39 29 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 26 28 27 25 21 16 12 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -1 2 19 22 21 2 -16 -13 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 77 102 102 71 57 37 34 -33 -37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 9 23 31 40 24 18 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1648 1649 1658 1640 1631 1602 1587 1647 1807 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.4 17.2 18.0 19.0 20.0 21.9 23.0 23.0 22.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 125.4 126.3 127.2 127.9 128.6 129.5 130.2 131.2 132.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 11 9 4 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -9. -18. -29. -40. -48. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -8. -12. -17. -23. -25. -24. -23. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -4. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -7. -9. -9. -9. -6. -2. 1. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 1. -1. -4. -10. -19. -25. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -12. -22. -33. -45. -65. -80. -91. -101. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 16.4 125.4 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122024 KRISTY 10/25/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 20.8 36.9 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.00 0.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 42.0 34.9 to 8.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 598.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.23 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 81.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.56 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.6 58.2 to 0.0 0.85 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.44 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122024 KRISTY 10/25/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##