* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KRISTY EP122024 10/25/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 104 95 85 75 53 36 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 115 104 95 85 75 53 36 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 115 103 94 84 74 55 38 26 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 11 18 27 28 33 46 52 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 9 10 13 11 1 -2 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 206 193 192 196 206 205 222 217 233 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.5 27.4 26.2 25.7 24.6 24.0 23.9 23.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 140 139 126 121 109 101 99 99 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.6 -51.5 -51.9 -52.0 -51.3 -52.0 -52.6 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.0 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 60 60 59 58 53 45 36 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 29 27 29 28 29 24 19 14 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 3 -2 1 16 17 5 -14 -19 -17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 58 69 70 72 67 71 45 3 -32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 5 19 23 35 20 7 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1638 1650 1657 1650 1647 1626 1610 1610 1659 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.5 16.3 17.0 18.0 18.9 20.8 22.3 23.0 23.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 124.3 125.3 126.2 127.1 127.9 129.1 129.8 130.6 131.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 10 6 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 5 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 140 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -5. -8. -19. -31. -43. -54. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -10. -14. -20. -24. -24. -23. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -7. -9. -9. -8. -5. -1. 2. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -0. -1. -1. -4. -10. -19. -26. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -11. -20. -30. -40. -62. -79. -93. -106. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 15.5 124.3 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122024 KRISTY 10/25/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 18.6 36.9 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.00 0.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 35.4 34.9 to 8.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 618.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.49 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.01 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.3 58.2 to 0.0 0.99 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.39 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122024 KRISTY 10/25/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##