* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KRISTY EP122024 10/25/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 140 138 132 122 111 84 59 38 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 140 138 132 122 111 84 59 38 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 140 134 125 114 104 81 58 40 27 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 7 9 14 18 27 32 47 50 46 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 1 4 9 14 10 0 -1 -2 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 191 230 231 219 192 202 201 216 211 229 247 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.2 25.9 24.8 24.1 24.4 24.7 24.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 145 144 142 140 137 123 111 101 104 108 108 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.8 -52.0 -52.0 -51.5 -52.1 -51.4 -52.3 -52.8 -53.5 -53.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.1 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 3 2 2 1 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 59 60 61 62 59 53 43 35 28 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 29 30 30 29 29 28 23 20 14 11 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 14 6 0 5 21 2 -7 -5 -6 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 16 28 43 53 61 68 63 34 -3 -17 -43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 4 30 32 17 4 1 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1567 1606 1654 1676 1696 1702 1665 1684 1734 1831 1956 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.9 15.4 16.2 16.9 18.7 20.9 22.2 22.1 21.7 21.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 122.2 123.3 124.4 125.5 126.6 128.4 129.6 130.6 131.3 132.3 133.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 13 12 12 10 5 4 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 10 8 5 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -9. -14. -25. -39. -54. -68. -79. -88. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -6. -10. -18. -21. -23. -23. -21. -21. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -6. -12. -21. -26. -30. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -0. 1. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -8. -18. -29. -56. -81. -102. -122. -136. -149. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 140. LAT, LON: 14.4 122.2 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122024 KRISTY 10/25/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 1.6 36.9 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.3 34.9 to 8.5 0.44 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 702.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.11 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.36 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 140.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.87 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.05 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.38 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.7% 1.6% 1.0% 0.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: .9% .3% .1% .1% 0% 0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122024 KRISTY 10/25/24 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##