* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KRISTY EP122024 10/24/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 140 141 137 131 122 98 76 56 38 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 140 141 137 131 122 98 76 56 38 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 140 137 131 122 112 92 69 50 34 24 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 1 5 6 9 13 27 30 43 55 54 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 0 2 5 13 10 6 -8 -1 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 57 213 233 217 212 192 200 207 212 216 235 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.6 26.3 25.1 24.8 24.1 24.4 25.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 145 146 144 142 141 128 115 111 102 106 115 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.7 -51.9 -52.1 -52.0 -51.9 -51.7 -51.5 -52.4 -53.1 -53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 3 2 1 1 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 57 59 61 59 59 56 49 36 27 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 29 28 30 29 28 27 22 18 13 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 29 16 18 12 6 24 23 -1 -6 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 0 9 15 48 52 83 63 49 45 -38 -24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -1 1 5 23 34 29 14 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1513 1578 1652 1693 1725 1743 1741 1724 1716 1824 2022 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.4 14.7 15.3 15.9 17.6 19.5 21.5 22.7 22.2 20.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 121.0 122.4 123.7 124.8 125.9 127.9 129.5 130.6 131.9 132.9 133.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 12 13 12 11 10 5 7 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 11 10 8 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 531 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -3. -5. -9. -12. -22. -35. -48. -62. -74. -82. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -5. -12. -17. -18. -19. -19. -19. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -5. -12. -19. -22. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -0. 1. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. -3. -9. -18. -42. -64. -84. -101. -120. -133. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 140. LAT, LON: 14.1 121.0 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122024 KRISTY 10/24/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 3.5 36.9 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.2 34.9 to 8.5 0.63 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 718.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.09 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.28 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 140.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.90 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.07 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.43 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 14.4% 5.1% 3.3% 2.6% 1.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.8% 1.7% 1.1% 0.9% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.4% .8% .5% .4% .2% 0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122024 KRISTY 10/24/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##