* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KRISTY EP122024 10/24/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 130 126 124 119 114 98 81 64 49 29 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 130 126 124 119 114 98 81 64 49 29 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 130 124 117 111 105 90 73 53 37 26 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 1 6 9 11 18 28 35 48 56 50 49 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -1 0 3 10 13 10 0 -3 -4 -5 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 325 280 214 221 212 184 195 203 215 211 223 248 270 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.0 28.2 28.1 27.7 27.0 25.8 25.6 24.7 24.5 24.6 24.8 25.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 146 147 146 142 135 122 119 108 106 109 112 115 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.0 -51.6 -51.9 -52.1 -51.7 -52.0 -51.4 -52.2 -52.9 -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 59 60 60 61 61 59 51 41 32 26 22 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 25 27 27 28 28 28 23 20 14 11 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 32 24 18 18 15 13 26 10 -3 8 7 5 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 6 10 26 29 60 83 55 52 20 5 -13 -26 -51 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -1 1 2 6 11 30 23 14 -2 -2 -4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1422 1503 1573 1625 1686 1726 1742 1780 1777 1810 1963 1975 1663 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.3 14.5 15.0 15.4 16.8 18.6 20.3 21.7 22.0 21.2 20.4 19.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 119.7 121.1 122.4 123.6 124.8 126.9 128.8 130.5 131.4 132.4 133.7 135.9 138.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 12 12 12 12 10 6 5 9 13 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 12 11 10 8 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 135 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 509 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -5. -7. -15. -26. -38. -49. -60. -69. -74. -77. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -12. -14. -15. -16. -18. -21. -26. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -9. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. -4. -9. -18. -21. -24. -24. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -11. -16. -32. -49. -66. -81. -101. -115. -126. -134. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 130. LAT, LON: 14.0 119.7 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122024 KRISTY 10/24/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 15.9 36.9 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.4 34.9 to 8.5 0.70 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 609.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.22 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.29 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 130.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.03 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.94 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.08 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.51 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 10.4% 7.9% 3.3% 2.6% 1.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.5% 2.6% 1.1% 0.9% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.7% 1.8% .5% .4% .3% 0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122024 KRISTY 10/24/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##