* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KRISTY EP122024 10/24/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 130 129 126 122 118 104 85 73 60 44 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 130 129 126 122 118 104 85 73 60 44 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 130 126 120 114 108 94 77 60 45 32 23 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 6 3 9 10 13 26 33 41 47 50 51 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 0 0 1 8 13 8 9 -1 0 -8 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 336 328 246 208 230 222 194 197 211 210 218 240 264 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.0 28.2 28.1 27.4 25.9 25.3 25.2 24.7 24.8 24.6 25.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 148 146 147 147 139 123 117 114 107 109 109 117 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.3 -52.1 -51.8 -52.0 -52.2 -51.9 -52.0 -51.9 -52.7 -53.2 -53.9 -53.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 1 2 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 62 58 58 59 60 60 56 49 40 35 30 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 26 26 26 27 28 25 24 22 17 13 9 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 39 31 25 19 19 12 26 23 0 -4 6 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 9 1 0 12 15 65 78 78 37 40 -18 -22 -39 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -2 -1 0 1 6 22 28 21 18 2 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1305 1402 1501 1564 1637 1730 1751 1778 1818 1825 1895 2050 1829 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.2 14.3 14.6 14.9 16.1 17.7 19.6 21.1 21.7 21.4 20.8 20.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 118.2 119.7 121.1 122.4 123.7 126.2 128.1 130.0 131.4 132.2 132.9 134.5 137.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 14 13 13 13 13 12 12 7 3 6 11 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 19 15 12 11 10 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 542 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -6. -13. -24. -35. -45. -57. -66. -72. -75. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -12. -13. -13. -15. -18. -23. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. -1. -7. -13. -17. -18. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -4. -8. -12. -26. -45. -57. -70. -86. -102. -115. -125. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 130. LAT, LON: 14.1 118.2 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122024 KRISTY 10/24/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 17.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.1 34.9 to 8.5 0.63 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 634.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.19 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.20 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 130.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.03 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.92 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.10 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.44 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 8.4% 6.9% 3.1% 2.6% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 2.3% 1.0% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.4% 2.1% .5% .4% .2% 0% 0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122024 KRISTY 10/24/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##