* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KRISTY EP122024 10/23/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 130 139 139 135 129 112 94 76 62 48 34 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 130 139 139 135 129 112 94 76 62 48 34 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 130 137 134 128 121 106 93 78 60 45 33 24 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 7 7 7 3 12 15 25 29 41 50 58 60 65 51 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 5 3 1 0 1 7 12 8 5 -3 -7 -11 -19 -5 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 20 338 331 320 240 219 219 202 214 209 207 221 237 262 271 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.1 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.2 27.6 26.3 26.3 25.4 25.2 24.4 25.2 25.1 25.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 148 149 148 147 148 141 127 127 117 115 107 116 114 120 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.3 -51.9 -52.5 -52.3 -52.0 -52.3 -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 -53.1 -54.1 -54.5 -53.9 -54.5 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.2 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 2 2 3 3 4 4 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 58 60 62 60 60 60 61 56 49 37 28 23 23 26 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 22 24 25 25 26 27 26 24 20 16 12 8 6 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 41 38 40 36 32 29 16 29 22 14 -1 13 15 12 6 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 4 -9 -9 -11 8 23 62 61 50 38 36 -21 -45 -71 -46 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -11 -5 -8 -2 0 2 6 21 21 15 7 0 -5 1 -2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1097 1200 1322 1426 1535 1691 1786 1820 1874 1940 1982 2038 1766 1558 1418 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.0 13.9 14.0 14.0 14.4 15.6 17.1 18.5 19.7 20.7 21.0 20.5 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 114.7 116.5 118.2 119.7 121.2 123.9 126.4 128.4 130.3 131.9 133.3 135.3 137.9 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 17 16 15 14 13 13 12 10 9 9 11 11 9 8 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 24 22 20 16 12 11 7 3 1 1 0 0 1 1 2 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 528 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -11. -19. -29. -38. -47. -55. -62. -66. -69. -72. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -11. -13. -17. -22. -29. -34. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 12. 16. 15. 12. 6. -1. -9. -12. -11. -11. -13. -15. -15. -15. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -5. -10. -14. -17. -18. -18. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 9. 9. 5. -1. -18. -36. -54. -68. -82. -96. -113. -128. -139. -147. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 130. LAT, LON: 14.1 114.7 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122024 KRISTY 10/23/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 18.5 36.9 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 45.0 -22.0 to 44.0 1.00 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.9 34.9 to 8.5 0.57 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 610.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.22 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.15 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 130.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.03 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.86 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.15 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.54 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 73.4% 50.0% 41.9% 47.9% 23.1% 7.3% 0.5% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 24.6% 16.7% 14.0% 16.0% 7.7% 2.4% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 5.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 14.8% 8.8% 7.0% 8.0% 3.8% 1.2% .1% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122024 KRISTY 10/23/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##