* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KRISTY EP122024 10/23/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 114 116 116 113 107 96 86 75 65 52 36 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 105 114 116 116 113 107 96 86 75 65 52 36 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 105 114 117 114 112 105 97 85 69 55 41 30 22 17 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 11 8 8 6 11 14 21 25 32 46 59 62 69 65 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 4 2 0 -1 2 7 12 12 0 -4 -11 -23 -20 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 6 17 353 340 325 212 213 199 209 206 216 217 236 253 263 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.4 28.1 28.3 28.3 28.3 27.8 27.1 26.3 25.8 25.3 24.3 24.7 24.9 25.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 151 148 149 149 149 143 136 127 122 116 105 110 113 121 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.6 -51.5 -52.1 -52.5 -51.9 -52.2 -52.0 -52.5 -52.0 -52.6 -53.5 -54.3 -54.1 -54.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.2 1.5 1.4 0.9 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 3 2 2 2 3 3 4 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 56 58 60 61 58 60 61 57 52 42 31 23 21 20 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 21 23 23 26 26 26 25 24 20 15 11 8 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 39 39 36 36 35 21 21 22 29 20 7 13 14 9 1 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 15 -4 -7 7 9 32 31 60 45 47 24 -10 -40 -53 -62 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -12 -10 -7 -5 -1 2 5 10 24 27 12 0 -3 -3 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 998 1072 1170 1278 1398 1588 1725 1788 1818 1881 1970 2039 1914 1674 1412 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.4 14.3 14.3 14.2 14.4 15.2 16.4 18.1 19.5 20.5 21.0 21.1 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 113.0 114.7 116.4 118.0 119.6 122.5 125.1 127.3 129.3 131.1 132.8 134.6 136.5 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 16 16 15 13 13 13 12 10 9 9 10 11 12 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 23 23 22 20 16 11 8 5 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. -0. -5. -11. -17. -23. -30. -35. -39. -43. -45. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -9. -14. -19. -25. -31. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 9. 12. 12. 11. 7. 2. -2. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 2. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 1. 4. 5. 6. 6. 3. -3. -8. -12. -14. -15. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 9. 11. 11. 8. 2. -9. -19. -30. -40. -53. -69. -83. -96. -106. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 14.4 113.0 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122024 KRISTY 10/23/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.1 36.9 to 148.5 0.07 0.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 35.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.86 8.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.9 34.9 to 8.5 0.53 3.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 518.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.32 -2.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.18 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.87 4.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.17 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.53 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 50% is 8.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 50.4% 21.9% 19.5% 17.1% 13.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 55.1% 46.8% 34.0% 35.8% 16.1% 11.4% 1.7% 0.1% Bayesian: 10.6% 2.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 38.7% 23.7% 17.9% 17.7% 10.0% 3.8% 0.6% 0.0% DTOPS: 27.0% 7.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 32.8% 15.3% 10.9% 9.8% 5.5% 1.9% .3% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122024 KRISTY 10/23/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##