* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KRISTY EP122024 10/23/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 88 94 97 100 104 101 96 83 73 62 48 33 19 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 88 94 97 100 104 101 96 83 73 62 48 33 19 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 88 94 97 99 100 99 91 79 64 51 38 28 21 17 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 12 10 8 10 2 11 14 22 25 41 55 58 68 71 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 4 4 1 0 1 5 11 11 3 -7 -7 -22 -23 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 5 8 14 3 331 213 218 203 218 216 214 209 225 242 260 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 28.6 28.4 28.1 28.3 28.1 28.2 27.6 26.5 26.5 25.4 25.1 24.8 25.2 25.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 153 151 148 150 147 148 141 130 129 117 114 110 115 115 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.8 -51.6 -51.4 -52.1 -52.2 -51.9 -52.0 -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 -52.7 -53.7 -54.1 -53.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.2 0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 60 57 58 60 59 60 62 60 55 48 35 26 22 20 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 22 23 23 24 27 28 30 27 26 23 19 15 11 8 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 39 39 41 41 44 33 30 29 41 32 21 20 31 28 16 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 42 8 -5 3 0 35 32 42 50 26 25 15 -34 -22 -70 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -16 -16 -13 -7 -5 2 5 6 19 22 18 9 0 3 -1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 848 993 1072 1170 1284 1513 1675 1770 1843 1898 1986 2066 1954 1746 1527 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.4 14.3 14.2 14.1 14.1 14.6 15.7 16.9 18.4 19.7 20.4 20.4 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 111.1 112.9 114.6 116.2 117.9 121.0 123.9 126.3 128.5 130.5 132.4 134.2 136.1 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 17 16 16 16 15 13 12 12 12 10 9 9 10 9 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 23 23 22 20 13 10 7 4 1 0 0 0 1 1 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 37.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 2. -1. -5. -8. -12. -15. -18. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -15. -20. -26. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 8. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 9. 8. 4. -1. -6. -10. -11. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 4. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 8. 14. 17. 20. 24. 21. 16. 3. -7. -18. -32. -47. -61. -71. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 14.5 111.1 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122024 KRISTY 10/23/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.8 36.9 to 148.5 0.31 3.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 7.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.1 34.9 to 8.5 0.52 4.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 388.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.47 -4.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.21 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 4.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.84 4.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.18 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.47 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 39% is 6.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 39.3% 25.2% 22.7% 18.4% 14.6% 22.5% 15.6% 0.0% Logistic: 22.9% 35.9% 18.2% 16.4% 7.1% 9.4% 2.8% 0.3% Bayesian: 9.6% 21.9% 2.6% 1.0% 0.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 23.9% 27.7% 14.5% 11.9% 7.5% 10.8% 6.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 62.0% 52.0% 35.0% 33.0% 19.0% 15.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 42.9% 39.8% 24.7% 22.4% 13.2% 12.9% 3.5% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122024 KRISTY 10/23/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##