* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KRISTY EP122024 10/23/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 79 87 94 98 103 104 96 88 73 63 51 38 25 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 79 87 94 98 103 104 96 88 73 63 51 38 25 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 80 87 93 96 100 101 97 86 70 55 42 31 23 18 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 7 10 8 7 6 10 15 18 25 32 44 54 59 60 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 4 3 0 0 1 11 13 9 0 -5 -9 -13 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 3 355 5 8 348 326 185 217 205 204 203 213 215 236 248 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.1 28.6 28.5 28.1 28.4 28.2 27.8 27.1 26.4 25.6 25.2 24.2 25.0 24.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 159 158 153 152 148 150 148 144 136 129 120 115 104 113 110 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.8 -51.9 -51.7 -51.6 -52.7 -51.7 -52.2 -52.1 -52.4 -52.2 -52.6 -53.4 -54.4 -54.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 65 62 58 57 61 59 59 60 57 54 45 33 24 21 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 21 22 24 23 25 28 27 28 25 23 21 17 13 9 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 43 41 38 41 39 34 33 39 46 27 11 12 17 12 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 38 45 18 -3 -3 23 48 34 36 27 24 9 -3 -32 -61 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -11 -14 -14 -11 -7 0 0 4 10 22 23 9 1 -3 -8 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 686 817 959 1046 1158 1383 1567 1717 1804 1857 1901 1982 2028 1831 1632 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.7 14.7 14.6 14.5 14.3 14.2 14.4 15.2 16.4 17.9 19.6 20.7 21.2 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.2 110.9 112.5 114.4 116.2 119.4 122.2 125.0 127.5 129.6 131.4 133.3 135.4 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 17 18 16 15 14 14 13 12 11 10 9 9 9 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 27 22 22 23 22 17 11 8 5 1 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 51.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 9. 7. 4. 2. -2. -5. -8. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -6. -10. -14. -19. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 8. 9. 12. 8. 5. 2. -3. -7. -10. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 14. 13. 6. 1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -9. -8. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 9. 17. 24. 28. 33. 34. 26. 18. 3. -7. -19. -32. -45. -55. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 14.7 109.2 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122024 KRISTY 10/23/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.1 36.9 to 148.5 0.42 7.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 12.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.1 34.9 to 8.5 0.60 8.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 319.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.54 -8.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.26 3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 8.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.88 8.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.20 1.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 2.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.43 -0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 57% is 9.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 50% is 4.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 57.3% 50.2% 44.4% 36.8% 23.6% 27.0% 18.9% 10.6% Logistic: 56.7% 70.0% 51.1% 48.8% 24.9% 30.5% 7.0% 1.3% Bayesian: 32.5% 51.1% 12.0% 7.2% 1.8% 3.2% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 48.8% 57.1% 35.9% 30.9% 16.8% 20.2% 8.7% 4.0% DTOPS: 67.0% 42.0% 29.0% 29.0% 15.0% 7.0% 2.0% 0.0% SDCON: 57.9% 49.5% 32.4% 29.9% 15.9% 13.6% 5.3% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122024 KRISTY 10/23/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##