* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KRISTY EP122024 10/22/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 68 76 82 88 93 95 94 85 79 70 59 48 36 25 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 68 76 82 88 93 95 94 85 79 70 59 48 36 25 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 68 75 82 86 93 95 93 86 76 61 47 35 26 19 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 6 10 11 12 12 4 14 14 24 28 38 52 55 68 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 0 2 0 0 0 5 12 10 7 -8 -3 -25 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 45 17 12 2 1 324 206 209 210 200 207 199 207 227 247 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.2 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.0 28.3 27.7 26.4 26.2 25.2 24.7 24.8 24.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 160 158 159 153 152 149 146 149 142 129 126 115 110 111 112 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.9 -51.9 -52.0 -51.8 -52.5 -52.6 -52.1 -52.3 -52.5 -52.7 -52.6 -53.0 -54.1 -54.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.6 1.1 1.4 1.5 1.6 0.7 0.4 0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 3 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 69 67 63 58 61 60 59 63 63 59 55 43 32 24 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 19 20 19 21 22 24 27 26 27 26 22 19 14 10 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 42 45 44 41 43 34 33 24 38 28 13 4 13 19 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 35 22 27 -14 -21 -6 34 19 45 40 24 38 27 -30 -33 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -9 -9 -13 -14 -11 -4 1 0 6 23 27 26 10 -2 -7 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 601 698 815 972 1059 1262 1491 1676 1772 1804 1863 1963 2045 1913 1643 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.6 14.5 14.4 14.3 14.2 14.1 14.5 15.5 17.1 18.8 20.1 20.7 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 107.7 109.2 110.7 112.5 114.3 117.7 120.7 123.8 126.1 128.2 130.4 132.4 134.3 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 16 17 17 16 15 14 12 13 12 10 10 11 12 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 30 27 23 22 24 21 14 11 7 3 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 520 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 48.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 15. 15. 14. 12. 9. 6. 4. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -9. -12. -17. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 7. 12. 12. 14. 11. 6. 2. -3. -7. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 8. 13. 12. 6. 1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 8. 16. 22. 28. 33. 35. 34. 25. 19. 10. -1. -11. -24. -35. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 14.6 107.7 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122024 KRISTY 10/22/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.5 36.9 to 148.5 0.53 10.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 11.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.2 34.9 to 8.5 0.63 9.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 236.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.64 -10.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.21 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 10.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.88 8.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.21 1.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 3.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.55 -0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 45% is 7.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 56% is 4.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 6.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 6.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 45.0% 56.5% 45.3% 37.6% 26.4% 27.6% 20.1% 12.4% Logistic: 60.2% 71.4% 47.0% 41.2% 28.0% 25.5% 7.2% 3.4% Bayesian: 23.5% 61.3% 12.0% 6.5% 21.1% 5.9% 0.9% 0.0% Consensus: 42.9% 63.1% 34.8% 28.4% 25.1% 19.7% 9.4% 5.3% DTOPS: 46.0% 50.0% 39.0% 42.0% 30.0% 15.0% 11.0% 9.0% SDCON: 44.4% 56.5% 36.9% 35.2% 27.5% 17.3% 10.2% 7.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122024 KRISTY 10/22/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##