* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KRISTY EP122024 10/22/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 56 64 71 76 85 91 89 88 78 73 65 57 45 34 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 56 64 71 76 85 91 89 88 78 73 65 57 45 34 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 56 62 69 75 84 88 88 83 73 61 49 37 27 21 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 6 5 7 11 6 7 10 15 21 23 27 42 55 54 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -2 0 0 5 1 0 1 9 15 12 1 -7 -2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 79 74 53 13 357 346 309 199 227 206 208 193 206 211 226 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.3 28.7 28.1 28.3 28.2 27.8 27.1 26.3 25.5 24.9 24.0 24.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 161 160 161 160 154 148 149 148 143 136 127 119 112 102 105 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.1 -51.8 -51.8 -52.0 -51.8 -52.9 -52.3 -52.3 -52.1 -52.6 -52.4 -52.7 -53.3 -54.7 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.1 1.5 1.6 1.3 0.8 0.5 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 70 69 66 62 58 60 60 58 63 58 57 49 38 27 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 17 19 20 19 22 26 25 28 26 28 25 23 18 13 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 39 44 44 40 37 36 32 32 43 37 24 2 4 15 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 54 47 42 29 -14 -11 19 39 17 22 21 78 53 18 -16 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -10 -7 -8 -13 -13 -3 -1 0 3 8 21 27 17 7 -6 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 509 596 686 817 953 1118 1352 1534 1679 1757 1828 1881 1897 1908 1989 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.6 14.7 14.7 14.7 14.6 14.5 14.8 15.5 16.7 18.2 19.8 21.3 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 106.0 107.6 109.2 110.9 112.6 116.0 119.3 122.2 124.8 127.2 129.5 131.3 132.8 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 16 16 16 16 15 13 13 13 12 11 9 8 8 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 31 27 22 22 22 17 11 8 5 1 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 483 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 43.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 6. 10. 14. 18. 20. 21. 21. 20. 17. 14. 11. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 11. 13. 18. 15. 17. 12. 8. 3. -2. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 10. 5. 1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 14. 21. 26. 35. 41. 39. 38. 28. 23. 15. 7. -5. -16. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 14.5 106.0 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122024 KRISTY 10/22/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.2 36.9 to 148.5 0.65 11.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 9.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 34.9 to 8.5 0.71 9.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 177.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.71 -11.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.32 4.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.79 8.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 7.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.24 1.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 2.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.61 -0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 55% is 4.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 34% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 24.8% 55.4% 43.2% 32.1% 22.1% 33.8% 25.9% 14.4% Logistic: 16.6% 43.2% 24.9% 16.0% 8.6% 13.0% 7.4% 3.9% Bayesian: 4.0% 29.9% 6.7% 1.9% 3.4% 2.5% 1.2% 0.0% Consensus: 15.1% 42.8% 24.9% 16.7% 11.4% 16.4% 11.5% 6.1% DTOPS: 26.0% 54.0% 41.0% 34.0% 20.0% 29.0% 35.0% 61.0% SDCON: 20.5% 48.4% 32.9% 25.3% 15.7% 22.7% 23.2% 33.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122024 KRISTY 10/22/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##