* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KRISTY EP122024 10/22/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 51 58 67 74 85 91 99 98 92 83 77 67 56 44 31 15 V (KT) LAND 45 51 58 67 74 85 91 99 98 92 83 77 67 56 44 31 15 V (KT) LGEM 45 51 57 63 71 83 92 95 93 85 73 59 45 33 25 18 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 7 6 8 10 5 2 11 16 19 21 36 47 60 70 72 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -3 -3 0 3 5 1 0 2 11 14 6 -2 -2 -14 -20 SHEAR DIR 89 83 70 51 21 22 339 191 197 212 202 207 201 209 212 231 255 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.4 28.6 28.1 27.9 28.1 27.7 26.2 25.6 25.1 24.2 24.0 24.1 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 160 161 161 160 161 153 148 145 147 142 127 120 114 103 100 103 103 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.5 -52.2 -51.8 -51.9 -51.9 -52.4 -52.6 -52.2 -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 -52.6 -52.8 -54.1 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.8 1.2 1.1 1.4 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 4 3 2 2 1 2 2 1 2 700-500 MB RH 77 75 73 73 71 61 63 61 59 60 60 58 55 43 32 21 12 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 17 19 20 23 24 29 31 31 30 29 26 22 17 13 8 850 MB ENV VOR 45 44 41 48 48 38 41 34 32 35 46 29 7 1 27 20 15 200 MB DIV 106 58 57 52 53 0 6 41 -2 2 7 27 49 37 -23 -23 -53 700-850 TADV -6 -6 -7 -7 -13 -10 -2 0 0 1 16 23 29 11 -3 -12 -27 LAND (KM) 465 498 563 654 768 992 1187 1414 1567 1678 1750 1803 1876 1865 1878 1913 1911 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.4 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.7 14.6 14.6 15.2 16.2 17.5 19.2 21.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 104.0 105.5 107.0 108.6 110.2 113.7 117.1 120.2 123.1 125.6 127.9 130.0 132.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 15 15 16 16 16 15 13 13 13 13 11 6 5 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 38 36 33 28 24 22 22 14 10 6 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 521 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 48.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 10. 15. 19. 23. 25. 25. 25. 23. 20. 17. 15. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. -2. -5. -12. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 11. 20. 25. 25. 23. 21. 14. 9. 4. -0. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 8. 13. 11. 6. 1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 13. 22. 29. 40. 46. 54. 53. 47. 38. 32. 22. 11. -1. -14. -30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.1 104.0 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122024 KRISTY 10/22/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.6 36.9 to 148.5 0.71 12.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 9.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.9 34.9 to 8.5 0.76 10.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 109.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 -12.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.48 6.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 6.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 4.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.28 2.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 2.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.55 -0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 48% is 3.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 34% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 30% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.7% 48.4% 41.5% 30.8% 22.2% 34.0% 29.9% 18.4% Logistic: 5.8% 30.0% 16.3% 9.2% 5.4% 12.0% 10.2% 5.7% Bayesian: 2.4% 16.3% 5.7% 1.3% 0.6% 2.0% 1.4% 0.1% Consensus: 8.0% 31.6% 21.2% 13.8% 9.4% 16.0% 13.9% 8.1% DTOPS: 15.0% 53.0% 40.0% 32.0% 18.0% 39.0% 27.0% 32.0% SDCON: 11.5% 42.3% 30.6% 22.9% 13.7% 27.5% 20.4% 20.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122024 KRISTY 10/22/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##