* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KRISTY EP122024 10/22/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 48 56 66 75 89 96 98 96 92 79 74 65 58 48 34 21 V (KT) LAND 40 48 56 66 75 89 96 98 96 92 79 74 65 58 48 34 21 V (KT) LGEM 40 46 53 60 67 83 94 99 97 89 77 63 49 36 27 19 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 10 10 10 13 8 7 6 14 22 22 25 39 55 61 63 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -3 -4 -5 -1 3 0 0 0 4 14 12 4 -7 -8 -10 SHEAR DIR 88 73 75 61 50 21 6 343 212 212 198 217 201 202 212 227 235 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 28.8 28.3 28.4 28.3 27.9 27.1 26.1 25.6 24.9 24.2 24.4 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 159 158 159 159 159 155 150 151 149 144 136 125 120 111 104 106 107 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.4 -52.6 -52.1 -51.9 -52.1 -51.9 -52.7 -52.2 -52.2 -51.8 -52.8 -52.5 -53.0 -53.5 -53.9 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 7 7 6 5 4 5 4 3 2 1 1 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 79 77 76 73 72 66 59 61 58 58 62 59 59 55 42 31 25 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 15 18 19 21 22 25 27 30 27 29 26 23 20 13 10 850 MB ENV VOR 52 39 41 34 42 41 36 39 34 33 34 28 7 -7 10 18 7 200 MB DIV 98 111 68 58 55 11 -3 6 44 5 18 9 33 61 2 -39 -23 700-850 TADV -1 -5 -4 -7 -7 -10 -6 -1 0 3 10 31 32 20 1 -4 -14 LAND (KM) 445 500 536 603 681 946 1118 1346 1553 1685 1742 1781 1842 1900 1950 1972 1790 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 13.8 13.9 14.1 14.3 14.3 14.3 14.2 14.4 15.3 16.7 18.4 20.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 102.6 104.0 105.3 107.0 108.6 112.1 115.5 118.9 122.0 124.7 127.0 129.1 131.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 15 16 16 17 16 16 14 13 13 12 11 9 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 37 37 35 33 28 22 23 18 11 9 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 414 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 64.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 10. 16. 22. 27. 29. 30. 31. 30. 27. 25. 23. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -12. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 5. 6. 7. 11. 16. 21. 26. 20. 21. 16. 11. 7. 1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 8. 12. 18. 17. 9. 1. -4. -8. -10. -12. -12. -12. -12. -11. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 8. 16. 26. 35. 49. 56. 58. 56. 52. 39. 34. 25. 18. 8. -6. -19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 13.6 102.6 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122024 KRISTY 10/22/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.6 36.9 to 148.5 0.73 14.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 9.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 34.9 to 8.5 0.75 10.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 75.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 -13.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.55 7.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 5.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 7.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.30 2.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 3.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.50 -0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 64% is 5.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 47% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 46% is 6.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 53% is 9.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 49% is 10.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 22.1% 64.1% 46.7% 36.0% 25.2% 46.3% 53.1% 48.9% Logistic: 7.1% 36.0% 18.0% 12.4% 9.3% 20.3% 34.8% 21.2% Bayesian: 0.3% 12.7% 6.4% 2.0% 2.2% 3.5% 1.0% 0.3% Consensus: 9.9% 37.6% 23.7% 16.8% 12.3% 23.4% 29.6% 23.4% DTOPS: 15.0% 51.0% 43.0% 29.0% 12.0% 40.0% 22.0% 30.0% SDCON: 12.4% 44.3% 33.3% 22.9% 12.1% 31.7% 25.8% 26.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122024 KRISTY 10/22/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##