* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KRISTY EP122024 10/21/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 46 53 60 74 82 85 91 89 83 77 68 61 54 42 29 V (KT) LAND 35 40 46 53 60 74 82 85 91 89 83 77 68 61 54 42 29 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 42 46 50 61 71 79 86 88 84 74 58 44 32 22 15 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 12 10 10 11 10 6 5 4 14 29 28 35 46 57 66 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 -1 -3 -5 -5 -1 0 1 3 3 3 6 12 3 0 -11 SHEAR DIR 83 100 96 91 73 21 23 24 66 188 197 210 204 199 202 223 242 SST (C) 30.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.4 28.6 28.2 28.0 28.2 27.5 26.2 26.1 25.2 24.2 24.2 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 167 157 158 158 159 161 153 148 146 148 141 127 126 116 105 105 102 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.1 -52.7 -52.8 -52.3 -52.2 -52.1 -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -52.4 -53.0 -53.3 -53.8 -54.4 -55.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 81 80 78 75 73 65 58 57 55 54 56 57 58 61 54 43 29 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 11 12 14 15 17 18 22 24 24 24 22 20 17 13 9 850 MB ENV VOR 65 52 41 35 35 50 41 37 38 31 24 27 10 -5 -12 -20 -32 200 MB DIV 98 97 102 45 40 13 -41 -12 51 5 7 12 32 25 29 -23 -58 700-850 TADV 1 0 -3 -4 -4 -7 -2 -3 -3 0 1 16 20 32 28 -3 -12 LAND (KM) 410 464 522 564 640 854 1069 1248 1476 1622 1715 1790 1890 1970 1961 1934 1891 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 101.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 15 15 16 16 16 16 14 14 14 14 13 11 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 36 37 36 35 31 23 24 22 14 11 6 2 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 402 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 48.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 17. 23. 29. 32. 34. 35. 35. 34. 32. 30. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. -9. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 11. 19. 21. 20. 19. 15. 11. 8. 4. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 8. 13. 11. 6. 1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -8. -7. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 18. 25. 39. 47. 50. 56. 54. 48. 42. 33. 26. 19. 7. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 13.4 101.4 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122024 KRISTY 10/21/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.8 36.9 to 148.5 0.79 7.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.4 34.9 to 8.5 0.66 5.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 47.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 -7.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.54 3.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.31 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.65 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 3.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 41% is 8.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.1% 37.2% 21.5% 17.1% 14.4% 27.7% 28.5% 40.6% Logistic: 4.9% 31.1% 14.1% 8.6% 6.2% 14.4% 19.5% 17.0% Bayesian: 1.1% 20.6% 10.0% 3.6% 1.2% 4.5% 2.9% 0.4% Consensus: 6.4% 29.6% 15.2% 9.8% 7.3% 15.6% 17.0% 19.4% DTOPS: 4.0% 32.0% 22.0% 11.0% 6.0% 25.0% 23.0% 13.0% SDCON: 5.2% 30.8% 18.6% 10.4% 6.6% 20.3% 20.0% 16.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122024 KRISTY 10/21/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##