* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BUD EP022024 07/25/24 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 39 38 37 36 36 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 40 39 38 37 36 36 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 41 41 41 40 38 37 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 7 7 7 6 5 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 0 0 0 2 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 59 56 37 43 37 26 339 300 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.2 27.9 27.7 28.1 28.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 146 146 142 139 143 149 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.3 -51.4 -51.4 -51.7 -52.0 -52.1 -52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 3 3 3 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 66 63 63 63 64 61 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 7 6 6 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -4 -2 -7 -20 -16 -24 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 21 3 -11 -5 -17 -5 -14 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 2 0 -2 -1 4 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 692 744 805 871 936 1030 1144 1272 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.8 17.9 18.0 18.0 18.0 17.8 17.1 16.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 113.8 114.8 115.7 116.6 117.4 118.6 119.4 120.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 8 7 5 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 10 9 10 8 7 11 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 17.8 113.8 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022024 BUD 07/25/24 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.5 36.9 to 148.5 0.61 4.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.2 34.9 to 8.5 0.63 3.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 205.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.67 -4.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.15 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.28 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.06 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.87 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.6% 14.8% 12.9% 10.9% 8.8% 17.7% 17.3% 13.0% Logistic: 1.0% 2.9% 1.9% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 5.9% 4.9% 3.8% 3.0% 6.0% 5.8% 4.4% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.1% 2.9% 2.4% 1.9% 1.5% 3.0% 2.9% 2.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022024 BUD 07/25/24 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##