* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BUD EP022024 07/24/24 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 37 36 36 37 36 35 32 29 25 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 37 37 36 36 37 36 35 32 29 25 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 38 40 41 41 40 37 33 29 24 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 7 6 3 4 6 11 16 21 22 25 28 26 31 46 52 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 2 3 2 -1 2 0 -1 -1 0 -1 0 -4 -4 -7 0 SHEAR DIR 62 83 75 56 34 356 282 263 279 279 282 257 262 266 277 284 273 SST (C) 28.8 28.4 28.3 28.2 27.9 27.0 26.4 25.2 25.4 24.8 24.4 24.4 24.3 23.9 24.1 23.3 22.7 POT. INT. (KT) 154 150 149 148 144 135 128 116 117 110 106 106 104 100 102 94 89 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.1 -51.4 -51.6 -51.6 -51.6 -51.7 -51.8 -51.9 -51.9 -52.5 -52.5 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 700-500 MB RH 69 66 66 65 62 60 57 55 54 52 46 43 42 43 39 37 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 7 6 6 6 5 4 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 8 2 0 11 1 -6 -16 -28 -24 -31 -20 -21 -12 -23 -20 -41 200 MB DIV 12 34 30 8 -14 -18 13 -2 -7 -14 -13 -17 -6 -19 0 -16 -3 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -4 0 0 -5 2 0 3 2 5 6 3 6 7 9 9 LAND (KM) 692 678 716 781 860 998 1176 1328 1463 1602 1739 1883 2015 2069 1976 1880 1857 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.5 17.8 18.2 18.5 18.9 19.2 19.5 19.9 20.2 20.4 20.4 20.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 111.7 113.0 114.2 115.6 116.9 119.4 122.0 124.4 126.5 128.4 130.1 131.7 133.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 13 13 12 12 11 10 8 8 8 7 6 7 7 9 HEAT CONTENT 18 12 10 9 7 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 522 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 14. 13. 12. 10. 7. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 0. -5. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -14. -15. -15. -16. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -3. -6. -10. -13. -17. -21. -24. -29. -35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 16.9 111.7 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022024 BUD 07/24/24 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.8 36.9 to 148.5 0.69 5.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.3 34.9 to 8.5 0.67 4.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 171.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.71 -5.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.23 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.24 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.08 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.96 -0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.7% 16.6% 14.4% 12.3% 10.0% 19.6% 17.9% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 3.0% 1.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.0% 6.6% 5.4% 4.3% 3.4% 6.6% 6.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 3.0% 3.8% 3.2% 2.6% 2.2% 3.3% 3.0% 0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022024 BUD 07/24/24 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##