* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932024 07/24/24 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 24 24 26 28 30 29 28 26 24 21 17 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 24 24 26 28 30 29 28 26 24 21 17 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 24 23 22 20 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 6 5 4 5 3 5 11 13 19 17 20 24 23 33 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -2 3 5 0 3 2 0 0 -4 1 -1 -2 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 58 56 71 77 56 18 334 270 265 278 277 257 255 243 244 236 234 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.5 28.3 28.2 27.4 26.9 26.1 24.8 24.7 24.5 24.0 23.9 23.5 23.0 22.7 22.4 POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 150 148 147 139 133 125 111 109 106 101 100 95 89 87 85 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.4 -51.1 -51.4 -51.6 -51.6 -51.9 -51.8 -52.0 -52.1 -52.1 -52.5 -52.9 -52.9 -53.2 -53.0 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.1 -0.1 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 73 70 67 67 68 63 62 60 57 54 53 47 43 43 42 39 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 7 6 6 5 3 3 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 3 0 -4 -5 -6 -7 -13 -25 -33 -32 -27 -23 -3 -13 -22 -43 200 MB DIV 32 16 28 27 1 0 1 8 -2 -1 -11 3 1 -13 11 9 8 700-850 TADV -1 0 -2 -2 1 -1 1 2 3 5 1 7 3 5 6 6 9 LAND (KM) 664 698 680 701 745 873 1021 1166 1274 1387 1486 1597 1699 1794 1803 1778 1703 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.8 17.3 17.7 18.1 18.7 19.0 19.4 19.9 20.4 20.8 21.0 21.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 110.3 111.5 112.6 113.8 115.0 117.4 119.8 122.1 124.1 126.0 127.5 128.9 130.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 12 12 12 11 10 10 8 7 6 6 5 4 5 7 HEAT CONTENT 16 18 13 10 9 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 15. 19. 20. 20. 19. 17. 14. 12. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 9. 8. 7. 5. 1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -15. -16. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -0. -1. -1. 1. 3. 5. 4. 3. 1. -1. -4. -8. -11. -17. -23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.2 110.3 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP932024 INVEST 07/24/24 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.8 36.9 to 148.5 0.80 5.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.2 34.9 to 8.5 0.63 3.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 101.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.79 -5.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.26 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.30 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.10 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.84 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 13.2% 10.8% 0.0% 0.0% 15.2% 15.6% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 2.5% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 5.2% 4.0% 0.1% 0.0% 5.2% 5.2% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% SDCON: .1% 3.1% 2.0% 0% 0% 2.6% 2.6% .5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932024 INVEST 07/24/24 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##