* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932024 07/24/24 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 32 34 38 40 41 38 36 36 35 33 30 26 26 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 32 34 38 40 41 38 36 36 35 33 30 26 26 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 29 30 30 29 28 27 25 22 20 18 15 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 12 10 8 9 6 4 5 5 12 13 18 19 21 27 27 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 1 -1 -2 0 -1 -1 -1 1 0 -1 2 0 1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 52 57 57 70 85 90 75 311 269 271 275 283 267 260 251 260 281 SST (C) 29.4 29.1 28.7 28.6 28.2 28.2 27.8 27.0 26.7 25.8 26.0 26.1 25.7 26.1 26.3 26.1 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 160 157 152 151 147 147 143 134 131 120 122 123 118 123 125 124 132 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.6 -51.9 -51.7 -51.4 -51.8 -51.7 -52.0 -52.1 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 3 2 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 2 2 3 700-500 MB RH 72 71 72 69 66 67 62 62 60 59 59 56 52 52 48 48 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 2 2 3 3 4 3 3 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 2 4 6 0 -3 -9 -7 -9 -16 -34 -32 -34 -28 -26 -28 -14 -6 200 MB DIV 40 38 15 15 19 4 -2 -5 21 -7 7 -1 11 -10 -18 -60 -70 700-850 TADV -4 -7 -4 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 2 1 3 0 1 0 -3 LAND (KM) 577 614 666 698 691 778 927 1059 1206 1313 1397 1490 1594 1720 1878 2037 2229 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.7 16.3 16.8 17.2 17.7 18.1 18.4 18.7 18.9 19.3 19.4 19.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.1 109.3 110.4 111.5 112.6 115.0 117.4 119.7 121.8 123.6 125.1 126.4 127.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 12 11 12 12 12 10 10 8 7 6 5 7 7 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 39 22 15 18 12 9 7 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 528 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 17. 22. 23. 24. 24. 24. 23. 23. 24. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 3. -0. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -9. -8. -7. -5. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 13. 15. 16. 13. 11. 11. 10. 8. 5. 1. 1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.1 108.1 ** 2024 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP932024 INVEST 07/24/24 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.4 36.9 to 148.5 0.82 7.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.7 34.9 to 8.5 0.61 4.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 87.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.81 -6.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.29 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.18 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.66 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 21.1% 15.3% 0.0% 0.0% 20.2% 19.1% 0.0% Logistic: 3.2% 16.0% 5.6% 3.0% 0.9% 3.4% 2.4% 4.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 12.8% 7.0% 1.0% 0.3% 7.9% 7.2% 1.3% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% SDCON: 1.0% 7.9% 4.0% 1.0% .1% 3.9% 3.6% 1.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932024 INVEST 07/24/24 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##