* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992022 10/13/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 18 17 17 18 23 28 31 33 32 32 31 33 34 35 34 33 V (KT) LAND 20 18 17 17 18 23 28 31 33 32 32 31 33 34 35 34 33 V (KT) LGEM 20 18 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 17 16 16 15 13 18 20 25 21 19 17 16 22 21 24 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 3 5 3 4 1 1 0 -1 -3 -4 -5 -8 -7 -7 -7 SHEAR DIR 66 66 74 80 85 93 117 137 151 166 171 180 161 162 172 171 190 SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.5 28.9 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.7 28.7 28.3 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.1 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 160 159 161 162 159 153 150 149 148 151 150 146 147 146 144 142 137 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.7 -54.1 -54.3 -54.7 -54.8 -54.8 -54.9 -55.0 -55.1 -55.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 9 10 7 8 7 6 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 60 57 55 55 56 56 55 52 51 51 50 49 48 46 42 42 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 58 59 57 40 30 -5 -22 6 31 27 37 39 41 38 35 34 18 200 MB DIV 23 -7 -1 16 28 15 -6 -23 -11 16 15 18 6 -1 3 4 22 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -2 0 0 2 4 5 4 3 0 1 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 32 54 100 162 223 311 371 435 527 621 740 811 850 876 922 935 883 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 15.9 15.7 15.4 15.1 14.9 14.9 15.1 15.2 15.5 15.7 15.9 16.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 98.5 99.0 99.6 100.3 101.0 102.5 104.1 105.7 107.4 109.2 110.8 112.2 113.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 8 7 7 5 4 3 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 23 23 26 25 20 16 14 12 10 13 11 8 10 9 9 9 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 629 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 4. 12. 20. 27. 32. 35. 38. 41. 43. 45. 47. 49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -1. -6. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. -11. -13. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -2. 3. 8. 11. 13. 12. 12. 11. 13. 14. 15. 14. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 15.9 98.5 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992022 INVEST 10/13/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.91 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.23 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.18 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.43 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 104.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.79 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.20 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.95 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.42 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.8% 0.4% 1.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992022 INVEST 10/13/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##