* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982022 10/03/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 24 24 24 23 23 24 23 22 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 24 24 24 23 23 24 23 22 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 24 24 23 21 19 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 7 6 2 5 10 21 25 28 30 35 38 48 50 55 57 51 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 2 2 0 0 0 1 4 2 0 0 -4 -3 -3 0 2 SHEAR DIR 70 90 131 192 263 253 251 239 251 255 247 236 234 228 234 232 242 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 27.8 27.3 26.9 27.3 27.8 27.8 28.2 29.9 29.8 28.1 28.1 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 142 140 140 140 141 140 135 130 134 139 139 144 163 162 145 145 145 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 -53.5 -53.5 -53.8 -53.8 -54.1 -53.9 -54.2 -54.0 -54.3 -54.4 -54.8 -54.9 -55.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 5 5 6 6 7 6 9 7 8 4 6 3 700-500 MB RH 52 50 49 48 49 49 46 45 46 48 48 49 52 55 56 57 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 6 5 4 4 2 2 3 3 4 4 3 2 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -26 -22 -11 -7 -12 0 7 21 23 24 9 14 4 -5 -4 -18 -33 200 MB DIV 3 17 22 15 -6 12 22 38 20 10 6 10 1 12 19 9 13 700-850 TADV 0 2 2 5 3 1 2 2 0 1 2 3 6 2 4 6 13 LAND (KM) 829 809 781 752 726 632 520 424 359 289 231 174 135 -7 -194 -399 -619 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.8 16.1 16.4 16.7 17.6 18.5 19.2 19.7 20.3 20.9 21.7 22.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 111.6 111.7 111.9 112.0 112.2 112.2 111.7 111.0 110.5 110.0 109.4 108.9 108.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 3 3 4 5 5 4 3 4 4 6 7 8 10 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 7 7 6 7 7 6 3 2 4 8 7 9 21 25 3 3 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 657 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 17. 22. 26. 28. 30. 32. 34. 35. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 2. -2. -8. -13. -18. -23. -28. -34. -45. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -16. -23. -28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.4 111.6 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982022 INVEST 10/03/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.69 4.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.22 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.0 19.6 to 1.3 0.75 4.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.51 2.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 163.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.72 -3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.04 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.3 56.6 to 0.0 0.85 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.41 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 14.6% 13.6% 0.0% 0.0% 12.1% 10.1% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 1.4% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 5.3% 4.9% 0.1% 0.0% 4.1% 3.4% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982022 INVEST 10/03/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##