* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972022 09/29/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 41 47 53 64 73 76 75 66 45 35 30 25 18 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 35 41 47 53 64 73 76 75 66 41 31 28 27 27 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 39 43 52 59 61 59 53 36 29 28 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 4 3 1 6 5 11 15 27 29 33 41 51 50 60 64 69 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 1 1 -1 -5 1 4 0 -1 1 8 2 5 5 2 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 68 34 23 11 202 241 165 176 182 215 229 244 240 244 238 243 247 SST (C) 28.7 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.3 28.0 28.3 29.8 31.3 28.1 27.9 28.1 29.1 29.7 30.1 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 151 154 154 151 150 146 142 146 162 171 145 143 144 154 160 164 164 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -53.6 -53.4 -53.1 -53.7 -52.8 -53.3 -52.4 -52.2 -52.0 -52.0 -51.9 -52.5 -53.4 -54.2 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.7 1.2 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 6 7 6 8 5 7 5 6 2 5 1 4 1 3 700-500 MB RH 80 79 79 77 74 72 67 64 62 57 56 62 60 56 55 55 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 13 13 14 14 18 21 21 20 18 6 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -28 -25 -13 11 15 43 40 59 41 39 8 -9 0 0 -19 -28 200 MB DIV 64 69 91 96 94 101 125 97 71 36 29 1 32 6 34 23 6 700-850 TADV -5 -11 -7 -4 -2 0 0 -2 -4 -2 -2 1 -1 0 -4 -1 -4 LAND (KM) 426 413 406 404 394 360 290 186 118 53 -141 -327 -504 -430 -300 -181 -54 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.5 15.0 15.5 16.1 17.2 18.4 19.5 20.9 22.5 24.4 25.8 26.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 103.2 104.1 105.0 105.8 106.5 107.5 107.6 107.2 106.7 106.4 105.7 104.6 103.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 9 8 7 5 7 7 10 9 9 7 6 5 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 14 15 16 15 16 15 10 10 23 37 11 9 11 5 5 5 44 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 43.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 31. 33. 35. 37. 39. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 3. -2. -7. -12. -18. -25. -33. -45. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 11. 14. 15. 11. -5. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 10. 6. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 17. 23. 34. 43. 46. 45. 36. 15. 5. 1. -5. -12. -23. -32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.1 103.2 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972022 INVEST 09/29/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.75 6.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 82.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.60 5.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.2 19.6 to 1.3 0.84 6.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.72 4.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 47.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 -5.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.12 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.69 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 3.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 30% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 45% is 7.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 37% is 7.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.1% 41.9% 26.4% 22.9% 0.0% 30.0% 44.6% 36.9% Logistic: 9.4% 46.2% 33.7% 24.8% 8.6% 41.3% 32.4% 7.3% Bayesian: 0.3% 5.9% 3.0% 1.1% 0.2% 4.3% 1.8% 3.0% Consensus: 7.3% 31.3% 21.0% 16.3% 2.9% 25.2% 26.3% 15.7% DTOPS: 3.0% 16.0% 6.0% 5.0% 3.0% 11.0% 19.0% 25.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972022 INVEST 09/29/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##