* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972022 09/27/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 29 33 40 47 56 65 69 75 70 71 63 59 60 62 V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 29 33 40 47 56 65 69 75 70 71 63 59 44 33 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 28 31 34 35 37 40 43 44 43 39 36 31 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 5 5 2 3 5 8 10 7 5 7 9 8 5 6 6 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 1 0 1 5 1 -2 2 2 -2 -6 -5 -2 -1 0 1 SHEAR DIR 49 55 87 79 76 189 148 177 160 139 139 204 225 206 212 198 235 SST (C) 29.5 29.1 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.2 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.2 28.7 28.3 28.9 28.7 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 161 156 153 153 153 151 147 143 139 141 142 145 151 147 152 148 146 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.0 -53.4 -53.4 -53.1 -53.1 -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 -53.4 -53.2 -53.1 -53.0 -53.0 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.7 1.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 6 7 8 7 8 700-500 MB RH 81 81 83 81 79 79 76 72 67 64 65 65 65 63 60 60 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 10 10 12 14 15 16 18 19 22 19 20 12 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 23 13 4 -6 -7 22 33 33 32 30 29 37 23 11 8 5 13 200 MB DIV 64 60 53 54 65 80 99 111 68 86 64 79 55 45 27 22 35 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -6 -5 -9 -14 -4 0 1 -1 0 0 -1 -1 1 0 0 LAND (KM) 333 380 404 425 438 502 591 718 772 753 690 560 399 207 49 -39 -88 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.5 13.7 14.0 14.3 15.0 15.6 15.9 16.1 15.9 15.7 15.9 16.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 99.6 100.9 101.9 103.0 104.2 106.6 108.9 110.7 111.5 111.1 110.2 108.8 107.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 10 12 12 12 10 6 1 4 6 7 8 8 6 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 20 17 14 14 14 11 11 8 7 8 9 11 17 18 15 14 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 371 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 24. 28. 31. 33. 35. 37. 39. 40. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 16. 11. 11. 2. -6. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 4. 8. 15. 23. 31. 40. 44. 50. 45. 46. 38. 34. 35. 37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.4 99.6 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972022 INVEST 09/27/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.83 6.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.48 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.84 5.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 2.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 14.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.89 -4.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.13 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.46 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 22.9% 19.5% 0.0% 0.0% 18.9% 19.2% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 15.7% 8.5% 4.7% 0.6% 15.3% 5.3% 5.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 13.0% 9.4% 1.6% 0.2% 11.4% 8.2% 1.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972022 INVEST 09/27/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##