* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962022 09/21/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 34 35 36 38 40 41 41 39 38 37 37 38 39 40 43 V (KT) LAND 30 33 34 35 36 38 40 41 41 39 38 37 37 38 39 40 43 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 34 35 34 33 32 30 28 25 23 21 19 17 16 15 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 14 12 10 9 9 8 8 13 17 19 17 13 10 11 6 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -6 -5 -3 -1 -3 -3 -1 -3 1 2 3 2 0 0 -4 1 SHEAR DIR 99 100 107 112 113 129 182 200 205 210 228 233 260 289 338 16 143 SST (C) 28.5 28.9 28.7 28.3 27.8 26.9 26.2 25.0 25.2 25.7 26.5 26.8 26.6 26.9 26.7 26.7 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 149 152 150 145 140 131 125 112 114 118 127 130 128 132 130 130 129 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.9 -53.5 -53.8 -53.7 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -54.2 -54.2 -54.4 -54.2 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 5 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 72 71 68 66 64 63 61 60 55 49 43 38 36 34 33 30 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 6 5 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 3 4 22 19 24 43 23 2 -15 -24 -19 -18 1 3 2 5 -2 200 MB DIV 48 59 43 -7 -20 -4 4 -2 -13 -17 -14 -36 -26 -51 -18 -25 -30 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 1 2 0 4 1 5 5 11 11 12 9 9 5 7 LAND (KM) 223 246 258 275 309 393 467 391 371 422 480 580 694 835 992 1171 1343 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.2 17.4 17.6 17.7 18.0 18.7 19.6 20.7 21.3 21.4 21.2 20.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 104.9 105.7 106.3 106.8 107.3 108.5 109.9 111.3 112.7 113.9 115.2 116.4 117.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 5 5 7 8 9 8 6 6 6 6 7 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 20 27 23 16 11 5 1 0 0 0 1 2 1 2 4 2 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 432 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 15. 18. 20. 22. 23. 22. 22. 22. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 9. 8. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.9 104.9 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962022 INVEST 09/21/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.71 4.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.30 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 19.6 to 1.3 0.47 2.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.50 2.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 84.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.81 -3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.16 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.60 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.2% 16.1% 14.4% 13.3% 0.0% 12.8% 11.5% 8.9% Logistic: 1.5% 5.1% 2.6% 1.2% 0.8% 1.1% 1.2% 2.3% Bayesian: 0.2% 1.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 7.6% 5.7% 4.8% 0.3% 4.7% 4.2% 3.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962022 INVEST 09/21/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##