* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952022 09/15/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 42 46 51 52 56 60 62 64 66 68 68 67 68 68 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 42 46 51 52 56 41 33 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 34 37 40 42 45 46 47 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 19 20 21 21 18 21 12 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -1 0 2 0 -3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 51 51 58 62 62 72 83 100 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.7 28.9 29.4 29.2 28.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 152 151 151 154 159 157 150 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.4 -53.8 -54.0 -53.4 -53.2 -52.8 -52.7 -52.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 3 5 4 6 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 84 86 87 87 86 88 86 87 85 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 10 11 11 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 34 39 46 49 49 62 93 102 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 95 107 137 128 136 128 108 132 94 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -3 -7 -14 -9 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 372 343 316 262 222 130 72 30 -53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 95.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 5 8 8 10 10 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 12 12 11 12 15 20 18 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 2 CX,CY: 1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 699 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 23. 27. 29. 32. 34. 36. 38. 40. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 6. 7. 10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 1. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 7. 5. 2. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 16. 21. 22. 26. 30. 32. 34. 36. 38. 38. 37. 38. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.5 95.2 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952022 INVEST 09/15/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.74 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 120.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.80 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.6 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 4.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.90 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.09 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.39 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.7% 18.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 18.7% Logistic: 1.9% 15.9% 5.1% 3.2% 1.4% 16.2% 63.2% 39.3% Bayesian: 0.5% 1.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 10.7% Consensus: 3.0% 12.0% 1.7% 1.1% 0.6% 5.4% 21.1% 22.9% DTOPS: 2.0% 10.0% 6.0% 4.0% 3.0% 5.0% 7.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952022 INVEST 09/15/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##