* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932022 09/04/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 41 48 59 76 89 102 108 112 109 99 88 78 72 67 61 V (KT) LAND 30 35 41 48 59 76 89 102 108 112 109 99 82 71 66 61 55 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 40 46 60 75 91 100 98 90 75 59 49 45 42 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 16 14 13 13 10 4 13 11 7 4 13 10 6 6 9 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 5 5 2 2 1 5 2 -4 2 4 3 1 1 0 0 1 SHEAR DIR 49 11 19 32 35 9 6 21 28 7 258 245 245 253 241 247 227 SST (C) 29.5 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.0 29.5 28.9 28.1 27.0 24.6 23.7 23.6 23.1 22.2 20.0 POT. INT. (KT) 159 157 158 159 159 158 155 160 154 146 135 109 99 98 92 83 60 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.4 -51.9 -51.5 -51.7 -51.1 -50.7 -50.4 -50.5 -50.1 -50.3 -50.2 -50.1 -50.1 -50.1 -50.3 -50.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.6 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 7 6 7 6 5 5 4 4 4 3 4 3 4 2 700-500 MB RH 86 86 86 85 85 85 85 85 85 84 79 71 64 61 61 62 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 16 19 20 25 33 37 44 47 50 49 46 40 33 29 26 22 850 MB ENV VOR 84 94 93 88 97 97 90 101 93 115 105 97 99 99 86 69 19 200 MB DIV 88 97 90 93 80 115 113 97 99 112 64 33 13 1 -5 4 33 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -1 -2 -2 -3 -4 -1 -1 4 11 10 3 0 -8 7 8 LAND (KM) 286 297 309 319 308 348 375 446 328 236 75 35 62 5 44 108 142 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 99.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 10 10 10 12 11 10 11 12 11 10 8 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 21 18 19 21 23 26 25 36 26 7 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 65.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 24. 27. 30. 31. 31. 30. 28. 26. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 3. 4. 8. 14. 22. 36. 45. 50. 48. 40. 30. 20. 14. 10. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 8. 12. 19. 18. 10. 3. -2. -6. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -10. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 18. 29. 46. 59. 72. 79. 82. 79. 69. 58. 48. 42. 37. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.0 99.9 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932022 INVEST 09/04/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.81 5.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 89.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.64 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 19.6 to 1.3 0.30 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.49 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 7.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.90 -4.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.17 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.65 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 36% is 7.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.4% 20.4% 17.1% 16.0% 0.0% 17.4% 17.3% 36.2% Logistic: 0.9% 13.9% 4.1% 2.2% 0.3% 11.8% 31.3% 20.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 3.4% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 1.2% 31.4% Consensus: 2.8% 12.6% 7.5% 6.1% 0.1% 9.8% 16.6% 29.3% DTOPS: 4.0% 39.0% 21.0% 18.0% 10.0% 21.0% 54.0% 64.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932022 INVEST 09/04/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##