* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932022 09/04/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 30 36 44 52 72 87 99 107 111 106 101 87 76 65 54 47 V (KT) LAND 25 30 36 44 52 72 87 99 107 111 106 101 87 73 61 51 44 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 28 30 34 45 60 77 92 94 88 78 62 49 37 30 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 14 16 15 12 15 8 10 14 10 1 11 13 7 2 6 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 4 6 2 -1 -1 4 0 1 5 2 3 5 0 -8 -3 SHEAR DIR 59 45 10 21 42 44 348 2 34 23 4 243 240 246 250 233 172 SST (C) 30.0 29.6 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.5 28.9 28.6 28.3 25.6 24.4 23.2 23.5 22.4 20.4 POT. INT. (KT) 164 160 158 158 159 158 158 160 154 151 149 120 107 94 96 85 64 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.3 -52.3 -51.8 -51.4 -51.7 -50.5 -51.0 -50.1 -50.7 -50.0 -50.4 -49.7 -50.0 -49.2 -49.4 -49.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.6 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.5 1.2 0.7 0.8 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 6 7 6 7 5 5 4 5 4 4 2 2 0 1 700-500 MB RH 86 87 86 86 85 85 84 85 85 84 80 73 68 67 63 57 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 17 20 20 29 35 42 46 50 48 46 39 31 21 12 6 850 MB ENV VOR 73 83 87 94 90 99 94 100 91 90 111 87 94 72 42 41 50 200 MB DIV 120 106 110 99 91 113 121 91 86 77 83 22 42 22 17 8 21 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -2 -2 -2 0 -4 -3 -5 -1 7 11 16 0 0 0 -6 LAND (KM) 273 292 312 308 306 331 359 421 456 284 182 129 0 48 18 113 273 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 98.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 10 10 10 11 11 10 12 13 11 10 9 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 26 22 18 18 20 22 27 35 24 18 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 68.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 5. 12. 19. 26. 30. 33. 35. 36. 35. 34. 33. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 5. 6. 8. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 11. 20. 33. 43. 49. 46. 41. 28. 17. 6. -3. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 6. 4. 3. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 9. 13. 20. 19. 11. 3. -3. -7. -10. -12. -12. -12. -12. -11. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 19. 27. 47. 62. 74. 82. 86. 81. 76. 62. 51. 40. 29. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.7 98.9 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932022 INVEST 09/04/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.87 6.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 105.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.72 5.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.8 19.6 to 1.3 0.26 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 4.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 1.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.91 -4.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.17 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.49 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 24.3% 18.4% 0.0% 0.0% 18.0% 20.8% 0.0% Logistic: 2.5% 37.3% 13.1% 9.4% 2.2% 37.3% 62.9% 35.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 2.5% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 1.3% 1.6% 8.8% Consensus: 0.8% 21.4% 10.9% 3.2% 0.7% 18.9% 28.4% 14.6% DTOPS: 2.0% 28.0% 9.0% 7.0% 4.0% 28.0% 55.0% 63.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932022 INVEST 09/04/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##