* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932022 09/03/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 35 41 51 65 79 97 112 117 122 118 111 100 91 88 86 V (KT) LAND 25 29 35 41 51 65 79 97 112 117 122 118 111 83 52 54 42 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 28 30 33 42 54 72 89 102 105 98 87 63 42 44 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 14 11 9 10 11 7 7 7 13 7 3 15 13 6 0 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 0 1 -3 -2 3 4 -2 1 2 2 6 3 1 4 SHEAR DIR 12 33 43 41 28 12 351 44 22 52 9 316 250 245 254 160 268 SST (C) 29.3 29.6 29.8 29.7 29.3 29.6 29.6 29.2 29.6 30.2 28.8 28.5 27.0 26.5 27.8 31.1 31.3 POT. INT. (KT) 156 160 162 162 158 161 161 157 161 168 153 149 134 128 142 171 171 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.5 -52.0 -52.4 -52.5 -51.3 -51.6 -50.5 -50.8 -50.1 -50.4 -49.9 -50.3 -49.5 -49.9 -49.6 -50.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.5 1.1 0.8 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 5 5 7 5 7 6 7 5 5 4 5 4 6 5 700-500 MB RH 83 84 86 87 87 86 86 84 88 86 85 81 72 65 58 55 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 13 14 16 20 24 30 37 44 47 51 49 46 39 30 25 19 850 MB ENV VOR 53 63 73 75 85 100 108 101 96 95 88 117 87 81 74 78 38 200 MB DIV 107 136 135 118 116 123 125 111 87 75 89 91 58 33 25 38 -41 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 -1 -5 0 -4 2 9 16 25 -2 -5 7 LAND (KM) 345 313 281 287 303 322 300 320 337 405 225 161 20 -35 -19 79 -62 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 97.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 10 10 10 11 10 11 11 12 10 10 9 9 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 14 20 25 24 19 21 26 32 35 41 14 9 1 1 6 35 60 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 52.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 19. 26. 31. 34. 37. 39. 41. 42. 45. 49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 5. 8. 11. 19. 34. 47. 52. 56. 51. 43. 31. 20. 14. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 6. 4. 1. -0. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 4. 6. 9. 14. 13. 7. 2. -2. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 16. 26. 40. 54. 72. 87. 92. 97. 93. 86. 75. 66. 63. 62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.7 97.1 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932022 INVEST 09/03/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.86 6.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 122.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.81 5.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.40 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 2.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 9.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.90 -4.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.17 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.59 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 22.9% 18.9% 0.0% 0.0% 18.9% 27.8% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 23.4% 10.1% 5.6% 1.4% 27.3% 76.5% 43.6% Bayesian: 0.3% 2.7% 2.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.7% 4.4% 19.1% Consensus: 0.5% 16.3% 10.4% 2.0% 0.5% 15.6% 36.2% 20.9% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932022 INVEST 09/03/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##