* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922022 09/01/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 42 46 52 54 50 47 42 37 33 27 22 19 19 19 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 42 46 52 54 50 47 42 37 33 27 22 19 19 19 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 33 35 37 39 37 34 30 27 24 21 19 16 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 2 4 5 6 4 2 6 8 5 7 9 16 19 19 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -2 1 4 2 5 1 2 6 3 4 -2 0 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 18 320 251 205 195 154 198 200 255 222 204 184 172 182 219 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.8 29.9 29.7 28.8 28.1 26.6 24.9 23.1 22.0 21.6 21.7 22.1 22.7 22.8 22.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 163 164 162 152 145 130 112 94 83 78 79 83 89 90 92 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.1 -51.2 -51.4 -51.2 -50.7 -50.6 -50.5 -50.4 -50.1 -50.3 -50.5 -50.8 -51.2 -51.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.6 1.1 1.2 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 4 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 79 80 79 77 74 72 69 62 56 52 51 50 47 42 38 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 19 20 21 20 19 16 15 13 12 11 10 9 9 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 46 64 70 81 104 120 126 82 83 100 99 107 91 92 85 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 89 86 92 73 86 50 -11 -6 0 3 -7 -6 5 0 7 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -7 -8 -6 0 2 2 6 -4 5 1 4 1 2 2 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 478 423 387 353 347 293 387 477 710 956 1161 1321 1489 1700 1939 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 110.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 10 12 11 13 12 11 10 10 10 11 11 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 30 32 38 21 9 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 527 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 34.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 6. 11. 15. 17. 17. 17. 15. 12. 9. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 5. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -15. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -8. -8. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 7. 4. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 16. 22. 24. 20. 17. 12. 7. 4. -3. -8. -11. -11. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 18.6 110.2 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922022 INVEST 09/01/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.80 6.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 85.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.61 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.84 6.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 3.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 43.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 -5.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.22 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.55 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 3.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.6% 37.8% 24.6% 22.5% 0.0% 21.5% 17.2% 11.0% Logistic: 14.8% 50.9% 34.0% 24.4% 5.0% 33.7% 3.2% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.5% 3.1% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 9.3% 30.6% 20.1% 15.8% 1.7% 18.5% 6.8% 3.8% DTOPS: 1.0% 7.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922022 INVEST 09/01/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##