* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922022 08/31/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 26 29 32 42 54 64 68 63 58 53 48 45 41 39 35 V (KT) LAND 20 22 26 29 32 42 54 64 68 63 58 53 48 45 41 39 35 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 21 22 23 26 30 34 36 33 30 27 24 22 20 19 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 15 12 13 8 3 7 9 7 5 13 12 14 16 9 10 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 5 4 1 -1 -3 -3 3 4 2 6 4 1 4 4 1 SHEAR DIR 49 47 37 30 29 141 193 168 183 233 212 202 174 159 150 154 209 SST (C) 30.0 29.8 29.6 29.6 30.0 29.9 28.9 27.4 24.4 22.7 21.8 21.9 22.9 23.6 23.7 23.3 23.0 POT. INT. (KT) 165 163 161 161 165 164 154 139 109 92 82 83 92 97 97 93 91 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.6 -52.0 -52.2 -52.3 -51.4 -51.6 -50.6 -50.8 -50.1 -50.1 -50.0 -50.2 -50.5 -50.7 -50.7 -50.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.1 0.7 0.8 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 6 7 4 5 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 78 77 79 80 81 81 76 70 66 56 57 53 53 51 49 47 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 14 15 15 18 20 22 23 19 17 16 15 15 13 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR -4 3 19 26 23 66 98 122 137 102 106 124 132 152 148 148 116 200 MB DIV 59 74 118 94 81 61 48 59 -7 -16 -7 2 -19 0 2 6 15 700-850 TADV -9 -12 -11 -9 -5 -7 0 1 0 3 4 4 -6 -2 0 0 2 LAND (KM) 462 448 424 426 428 345 204 190 331 523 880 1241 1545 1737 1829 1835 1840 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.7 16.4 17.1 18.0 19.8 21.6 23.3 24.7 25.5 25.3 24.3 22.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.0 106.8 107.5 108.2 108.9 110.1 111.4 113.2 116.1 119.6 123.4 126.8 129.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 11 11 11 13 16 17 17 15 12 6 4 6 8 HEAT CONTENT 24 24 23 25 38 32 13 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 492 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -2. 3. 12. 21. 27. 30. 32. 31. 30. 28. 26. 25. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 3. 5. 9. 13. 16. 12. 9. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 9. 12. 22. 34. 44. 48. 43. 38. 33. 28. 25. 21. 19. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 15.0 106.0 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922022 INVEST 08/31/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 143.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.94 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 85.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.61 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 19.6 to 1.3 0.30 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 21.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.23 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.52 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 21.1% 10.4% 6.0% 1.3% 40.9% 48.4% 11.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.9% 1.9% 0.4% Consensus: 0.6% 7.3% 3.6% 2.0% 0.4% 13.9% 16.8% 3.9% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922022 INVEST 08/31/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##