* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912022 08/24/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 23 22 19 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 23 22 19 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 24 24 22 21 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 12 9 9 7 10 14 16 19 18 22 21 22 18 15 15 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -2 0 2 -2 -1 0 -3 -3 -2 -4 -4 -1 0 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 83 95 124 143 141 161 177 178 182 198 196 208 204 219 197 204 215 SST (C) 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.2 26.9 25.8 24.7 23.2 22.5 22.1 21.9 21.9 21.9 22.0 22.1 22.1 22.1 POT. INT. (KT) 136 136 136 135 132 121 110 94 86 81 77 77 77 79 79 79 78 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.6 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 60 62 60 59 58 54 49 45 40 37 35 32 29 27 24 20 18 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 4 4 4 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 48 47 42 39 43 18 5 -10 -4 -19 -30 -28 -22 -4 -5 -13 -17 200 MB DIV 9 16 20 3 3 -10 -4 -5 0 0 -3 2 -15 -19 2 -2 -5 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 -1 0 0 2 5 4 4 3 3 3 0 0 -1 LAND (KM) 865 882 895 917 945 1038 1094 1188 1291 1363 1402 1432 1412 1414 1365 1344 1341 LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.3 18.5 18.8 19.1 19.9 20.8 21.5 22.3 23.0 23.6 24.0 24.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 116.9 117.2 117.7 118.4 119.1 120.9 122.6 124.5 126.3 127.5 128.2 128.7 129.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 4 6 7 8 9 9 10 7 6 3 3 2 3 3 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 6 6 5 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 694 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 15. 17. 18. 18. 16. 12. 8. 4. 2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. -0. -4. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -15. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -15. -18. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -10. -14. -19. -24. -28. -32. -37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 18.3 116.9 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912022 INVEST 08/24/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.64 2.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.22 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 19.6 to 1.3 0.48 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.37 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 140.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.75 -1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.02 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.65 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 12.6% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 4.4% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912022 INVEST 08/24/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##