* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912022 08/23/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 34 35 36 36 36 35 32 30 28 24 19 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 34 35 36 36 36 35 32 30 28 24 19 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 30 29 27 25 23 20 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 22 19 16 12 9 6 10 12 15 16 16 20 23 24 21 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 0 -1 -2 -2 0 -3 -1 -2 -3 -3 -2 -2 0 3 3 SHEAR DIR 74 69 68 72 93 148 161 168 193 205 213 203 204 204 210 201 198 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.3 26.9 25.9 24.9 23.8 22.8 23.2 22.7 22.6 22.6 22.4 22.4 22.4 POT. INT. (KT) 139 139 137 136 135 132 122 111 100 89 93 87 85 85 83 84 84 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.6 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.8 -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 4 3 2 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 59 58 58 60 61 57 56 50 48 42 39 35 34 30 29 25 21 MODEL VTX (KT) 3 3 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 28 32 37 42 41 29 21 0 -2 -15 -6 -14 -22 -27 -35 -33 -47 200 MB DIV 24 15 1 -8 -10 -5 1 -3 -5 2 -2 2 14 9 2 -8 -8 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 6 3 4 1 0 0 1 0 LAND (KM) 793 813 840 855 884 945 1027 1104 1200 1324 1439 1522 1582 1591 1561 1509 1433 LAT (DEG N) 18.5 18.5 18.5 18.6 18.7 19.1 19.8 20.6 21.1 21.6 21.9 22.4 22.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 116.0 116.3 116.8 117.2 117.8 119.1 120.7 122.5 124.3 126.2 127.7 128.9 129.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 4 4 5 6 7 9 9 10 8 7 5 3 4 4 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 9 8 6 5 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 679 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 14. 16. 17. 18. 16. 13. 10. 6. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. -1. -3. -5. -5. -7. -8. -11. -14. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -12. -14. -16. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 2. -0. -2. -6. -11. -17. -23. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 18.5 116.0 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912022 INVEST 08/23/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.62 3.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.19 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.2 19.6 to 1.3 0.08 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 2.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 175.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.71 -2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.04 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 9.5 56.6 to 0.0 0.83 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.55 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 9.7% 7.6% 5.7% 0.0% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 1.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 3.7% 2.8% 2.0% 0.1% 2.6% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912022 INVEST 08/23/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##