* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912022 08/22/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 26 27 29 30 32 33 31 29 26 21 18 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 26 27 29 30 32 33 31 29 26 21 18 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 24 24 23 21 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 13 15 19 22 16 13 7 7 13 14 22 20 24 26 26 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 0 -1 -4 0 0 0 1 -2 0 -4 -5 -2 -3 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 98 107 96 86 85 73 81 135 150 180 202 196 204 196 203 198 204 SST (C) 27.8 27.6 27.3 27.2 27.2 26.8 26.7 25.3 24.6 23.0 23.1 23.0 23.3 23.3 23.2 23.1 23.0 POT. INT. (KT) 141 138 135 134 134 130 130 116 109 92 93 90 92 92 90 89 88 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.2 -53.5 -53.8 -53.6 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -54.0 -53.9 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 63 62 61 60 60 61 60 57 53 48 43 39 35 32 31 29 27 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 17 25 30 39 43 26 22 -2 -8 -22 -9 -9 -7 -6 -13 -19 200 MB DIV 0 -4 4 24 30 26 7 -6 -21 1 -15 -8 -6 -11 4 -13 -10 700-850 TADV 3 0 0 1 3 1 3 2 6 9 10 10 6 1 1 -2 0 LAND (KM) 753 794 831 885 932 1015 1099 1206 1267 1354 1468 1573 1642 1676 1714 1731 1734 LAT (DEG N) 18.6 18.7 18.6 18.4 18.3 18.3 18.6 19.3 20.3 21.4 22.2 22.7 22.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 115.6 116.3 116.8 117.4 118.0 119.2 120.6 122.4 124.4 126.4 128.2 129.6 130.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 6 6 6 8 10 11 10 9 6 4 3 2 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 10 7 5 4 4 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 468 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 22. 22. 21. 19. 16. 13. 12. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -11. -15. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 6. 4. 1. -4. -7. -11. -16. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 18.6 115.6 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912022 INVEST 08/22/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.65 1.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.23 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.6 19.6 to 1.3 0.22 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.42 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 142.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.75 -1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.03 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.49 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 10.2% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 6.4% 7.2% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 3.6% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.1% 2.4% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912022 INVEST 08/22/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##