* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902022 08/12/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 32 37 40 43 44 43 40 37 36 37 38 38 39 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 32 37 40 43 44 43 40 37 36 37 38 38 39 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 29 30 30 29 29 28 27 26 24 23 23 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 10 7 9 12 16 14 21 18 25 29 25 24 21 20 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -2 0 2 0 -2 -6 -3 -5 -6 -4 -5 0 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 86 90 85 83 63 69 88 73 80 115 120 127 120 112 99 101 97 SST (C) 28.7 28.4 28.5 28.7 28.8 28.2 28.2 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.7 27.1 26.7 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 151 148 149 152 153 145 144 140 140 139 139 140 140 137 132 128 122 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 75 75 75 74 74 72 70 67 67 66 62 61 58 58 56 56 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 10 9 10 8 8 6 6 5 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 26 25 29 28 15 19 8 9 17 20 35 29 28 22 34 40 200 MB DIV 47 51 43 46 49 41 39 -4 4 11 -14 2 -1 10 13 8 -2 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 -2 -6 -1 0 -2 0 1 1 1 0 -1 -4 0 -2 LAND (KM) 586 600 630 668 716 724 734 758 808 822 829 844 882 884 855 865 923 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 10 10 8 5 3 2 1 0 2 2 2 3 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 13 12 13 13 12 8 9 8 9 9 9 9 9 7 4 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 18. 24. 28. 30. 32. 33. 34. 35. 36. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 2. -0. -3. -6. -9. -10. -11. -12. -14. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -9. -9. -9. -9. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 12. 15. 18. 19. 18. 15. 12. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.5 107.2 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902022 INVEST 08/12/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.78 5.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.42 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 19.6 to 1.3 0.55 3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 2.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 63.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.83 -4.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.10 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.54 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.7% 15.2% 0.0% 0.0% 14.2% 12.9% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 9.2% 4.2% 2.2% 0.8% 7.1% 2.4% 5.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 9.0% 6.5% 0.8% 0.3% 7.1% 5.1% 1.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 8.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902022 INVEST 08/12/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##