* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902022 08/11/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 31 36 42 44 49 49 50 50 49 48 48 46 45 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 31 36 42 44 49 49 50 50 49 48 48 46 45 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 30 32 32 32 31 31 31 31 30 28 25 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 11 10 7 6 12 12 7 12 10 14 19 17 16 20 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -3 -1 -1 2 4 1 0 -2 -3 -2 -4 0 2 1 0 SHEAR DIR 50 82 90 103 100 56 63 82 53 76 117 131 133 138 119 112 110 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.6 28.7 28.2 28.0 27.6 27.2 26.6 26.5 26.4 25.9 25.6 25.5 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 151 149 150 151 146 143 138 134 127 125 124 119 115 114 118 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -53.8 -53.8 -53.9 -53.5 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 4 4 3 4 3 3 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 78 75 74 74 72 73 71 67 65 63 61 56 52 49 48 48 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 7 8 8 7 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 3 13 19 26 24 34 25 21 16 27 42 44 56 61 51 54 48 200 MB DIV 27 24 33 27 30 42 40 36 11 -4 16 -13 4 -4 8 6 5 700-850 TADV 0 0 -2 0 0 -5 -5 0 -2 0 2 1 1 0 -1 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 570 584 601 618 653 751 712 722 759 809 843 896 947 976 1006 1045 1099 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 105.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 13 14 13 12 13 12 8 8 7 4 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 24. 28. 30. 31. 32. 32. 31. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -4. -5. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -4. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 17. 19. 24. 24. 25. 25. 24. 23. 23. 21. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.8 105.9 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902022 INVEST 08/11/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.78 4.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.32 1.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 19.6 to 1.3 0.53 2.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.36 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 55.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.84 -3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.10 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.45 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 12.4% 11.9% 0.0% 0.0% 13.0% 12.3% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 4.3% 1.7% 0.6% 0.3% 4.1% 10.7% 12.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 0.2% 6.0% 4.6% 0.2% 0.1% 5.7% 7.7% 4.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902022 INVEST 08/11/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##