* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902022 08/11/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 22 24 33 41 52 57 62 65 65 64 65 65 64 62 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 22 24 33 41 52 57 62 65 65 64 65 65 64 62 V (KT) LGEM 20 19 18 18 19 21 24 26 29 30 32 32 32 33 33 33 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 6 7 7 7 3 5 6 6 6 9 5 6 7 10 13 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -4 -1 -1 0 0 1 -2 -1 -2 1 -2 -2 -4 0 1 SHEAR DIR 46 56 102 106 101 79 102 133 132 98 86 83 64 100 84 87 85 SST (C) 28.5 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.3 27.9 27.0 25.9 25.3 25.5 25.7 26.7 27.2 27.1 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 151 153 151 149 150 152 148 143 134 122 115 117 119 128 132 130 129 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.8 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -53.4 -53.8 -53.2 -53.4 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 -53.4 -53.4 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 79 76 75 73 73 72 72 68 67 63 61 60 58 60 58 54 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 9 8 10 10 13 12 14 16 16 16 17 17 16 13 850 MB ENV VOR 6 10 14 27 30 27 31 23 22 30 36 48 51 68 68 59 47 200 MB DIV 40 39 29 42 48 41 64 41 27 35 17 37 8 -6 -4 17 10 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 -2 -1 -3 -6 0 0 -1 0 1 0 -1 -3 -2 -2 LAND (KM) 577 596 625 657 692 790 780 792 858 945 1080 1250 1416 1556 1631 1660 1658 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 14.0 14.3 14.5 14.8 15.6 16.6 17.7 18.5 18.9 19.0 18.6 17.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 105.5 106.7 107.6 108.5 109.4 111.3 113.3 115.2 117.1 118.9 120.7 122.4 123.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 9 9 9 11 11 10 9 9 8 8 7 5 3 1 0 HEAT CONTENT 12 13 13 13 15 12 9 8 3 0 0 0 0 3 5 5 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 481 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 20. 26. 30. 32. 34. 34. 34. 35. 36. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 8. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. 1. 1. 5. 4. 7. 10. 9. 8. 8. 8. 6. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 13. 21. 32. 37. 42. 45. 45. 44. 45. 45. 44. 42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 13.5 105.5 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902022 INVEST 08/11/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.83 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.38 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 19.6 to 1.3 0.70 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.45 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 39.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.10 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.42 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 14.1% 6.5% 3.1% 1.4% 12.8% 9.1% 8.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 4.9% 2.2% 1.0% 0.5% 4.3% 3.1% 2.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 11.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902022 INVEST 08/11/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##