* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ROSLYN EP192022 10/22/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 115 110 102 95 78 58 49 43 38 34 30 27 23 19 18 16 V (KT) LAND 115 115 110 102 73 42 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 115 113 107 99 73 41 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 20 20 17 20 42 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 -2 -2 -2 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 210 206 212 224 237 241 246 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.8 29.1 29.3 28.2 27.6 26.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 152 156 159 148 143 136 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -53.7 -53.9 -53.7 -53.4 -52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 5 4 5 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 59 55 52 52 54 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 8 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -5 17 12 18 14 25 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 58 83 58 71 49 45 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -4 -8 3 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 203 131 63 23 -61 -409 -342 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.4 19.4 20.3 21.6 22.8 25.6 28.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 106.6 106.5 106.3 105.8 105.2 103.3 100.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 13 15 18 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 15 19 22 12 7 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 8 CX,CY: -2/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -3. -9. -18. -26. -32. -38. -41. -43. -43. -44. -44. -46. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -10. -12. -19. -25. -23. -22. -22. -24. -27. -31. -35. -37. -35. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -4. -8. -8. -8. -11. -14. -16. -16. -16. -15. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -5. -13. -20. -37. -57. -66. -72. -77. -81. -85. -88. -92. -96. -97. -99. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 18.4 106.6 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192022 ROSLYN 10/22/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.50 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.07 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.89 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 515.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.32 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.13 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.41 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.8% 13.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.9% 1.1% 1.1% 0.4% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.1% 4.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192022 ROSLYN 10/22/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##