* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAINE EP172022 10/05/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 22 21 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 22 21 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 21 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 25 27 31 29 28 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 1 6 8 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 301 311 321 316 303 304 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.1 26.9 26.8 26.8 26.9 27.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 129 128 128 129 135 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.7 -53.8 -54.2 -54.4 -54.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 42 42 41 40 39 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 5 4 4 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 8 13 8 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -16 -40 -20 -7 -10 -30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 5 4 1 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 707 706 706 718 730 773 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.5 18.6 18.7 18.7 18.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 114.7 114.9 115.0 115.2 115.4 116.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 2 2 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 3 3 4 5 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 752 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 24. 26. 27. 27. 27. 27. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -3. -10. -18. -24. -29. -30. -31. -31. -32. -36. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -5. -4. -1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -14. -15. -14. -12. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -6. -8. -12. -18. -24. -29. -33. -36. -38. -38. -39. -39. -41. -44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 18.3 114.7 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172022 PAINE 10/05/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.58 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -18.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.07 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.0 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.95 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 178.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.70 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.01 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 86.9 56.6 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.40 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172022 PAINE 10/05/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##