* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ORLENE EP162022 10/03/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 35 29 25 24 23 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 37 33 30 29 27 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 37 32 30 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 33 38 42 49 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 8 7 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 257 258 260 258 253 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 144 143 143 143 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 5 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 57 56 57 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 2 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 7 5 -1 -5 -18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 31 36 30 -2 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 0 1 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -74 -130 -186 -234 -283 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.3 23.8 24.3 24.8 25.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 105.5 105.3 105.0 104.8 104.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 5 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 12 12 12 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 9 CX,CY: 4/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 13. 15. 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. 20. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -12. -21. -34. -44. -53. -57. -60. -63. -66. -73. -77. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE -8. -13. -16. -16. -14. -11. -10. -7. -6. -7. -6. -7. -5. -6. -6. -6. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -10. -16. -20. -21. -22. -25. -28. -32. -39. -45. -47. -51. -53. -58. -66. -67. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 23.3 105.5 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162022 ORLENE 10/03/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.54 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -40.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.27 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 42.5 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 123.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.77 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.09 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 63.7 56.6 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.46 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162022 ORLENE 10/03/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##