* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ORLENE EP162022 10/03/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 73 67 62 57 48 43 40 37 32 28 25 21 16 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 61 49 40 34 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 62 50 40 34 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 29 32 35 41 45 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 4 7 5 0 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 259 263 262 262 258 243 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.0 29.4 28.7 28.5 28.3 28.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 164 156 149 146 144 141 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.5 -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 6 5 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 55 57 56 57 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 12 4 -2 -1 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 30 26 27 18 -6 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 15 -26 -67 -89 -112 -141 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.6 23.0 23.4 23.7 23.9 24.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 106.0 105.9 105.7 105.7 105.6 105.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 4 3 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 27 22 15 14 12 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 9 CX,CY: 3/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -9. -9. -9. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -11. -15. -21. -24. -27. -32. -37. -41. -46. -49. -53. -56. -58. -58. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -7. -13. -18. -23. -32. -37. -40. -43. -48. -52. -55. -59. -64. -68. -73. -75. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 22.6 106.0 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162022 ORLENE 10/03/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.29 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.27 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 36.5 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 323.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.54 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.15 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 58.8 56.6 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.47 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162022 ORLENE 10/03/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##